Flop as favourites
2/7Atalanta won only 2 of 7 as favourites (league 55%).
AC Milan vs Atalanta Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Serie A - Season 2026/2027 (Round 7)
Flop as favourites
Atalanta won only 2 of 7 as favourites (league 55%).
2/7Wins as favourite · Atalanta
Bookmakers: Atalanta 23% to winMilan 50%
Milan vs Atalanta score prediction
Serie A
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.6 goals in total, a little over the Serie A average of 2.5.
goals expected
Milan1.5Atalanta1.1Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Milan vs Atalanta: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Milan vs Atalanta — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie A
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Milan to win
Our model 46%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 3,371 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.4%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 58%Bookmakers 55%
Our track record
In 5,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 56%Bookmakers 53%
Our track record
In 5,144 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.7% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 67%Bookmakers 69%
Our track record
In 3,821 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.9%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 41%Bookmakers 42%
Our track record
In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Milan Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Milan 0–1 goals
Our model 53%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 1,805 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.8% than to our 50–55%.
Atalanta Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Atalanta 0–1 goals
Our model 67%Bookmakers 70%
Our track record
In 3,162 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Milan vs Atalanta — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Milan vs Atalanta. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Milan–
Atalanta–Winner
1X 71%
BTTS*
Yes 58%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 57%
Milan–Atalanta–Winner
1X 71%
BTTS*
Yes 58%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 57%
Full Time
146%
X24%
229%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 22% | 78% | 44% | 56% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 57% | 43% | 81% | 19% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22% | 78% | 53% | 47% |
| 34% | 66% | 67% | 33% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 22% | 92% | 8% |
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
139%
X41%
221%
1st Score
157%
X6%
237%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
32%
X-1
17%
X-X
14%
2-2
12%
X-2
9%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
11.3%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.5%
1-2
7.3%
2-0
7.0%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
5.9%
0-0
5.6%
3-1
4.8%
3-0
4.2%
0-2
3.9%
3-2
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Milan vs Atalanta: the stats that stand out
Serie A
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Atalanta: flop as favourites · Milan: hard to break
2/7Hard to break
3/10Milan conceded first in only 3 of their last 10 (league 46%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Milan vs Atalanta: attack vs defence
Serie A
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Serie A teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Milan: good attack, good defence (1.48 xG, 1.25 xGA a game)
- Atalanta: weak attack, weak defence (1.27 xG, 1.73 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Milan vs Atalanta form and luck check
Serie A
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Serie A gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- MilanBookmakers: 50% to win today.−1.7
- AtalantaBookmakers: 23% to win today.−1.6
Last 5 matches
MilanW
D
D
W
W
AtalantaL
L
L
W
W
W
D
L
Strength rank: Milan 5th of 20 · Atalanta 7th of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Milan vs Atalanta: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Serie A
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Serie A gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Milan and Atalanta games more often than the Serie A average (47%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 48%
Milan6 of 10
Atalanta5 of 10
BTTSleague 47%
Milan6 of 10
Atalanta6 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 370 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Milan vs Atalanta corners, cards and goal times
Serie A
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameAtalanta score early
Milan
Atalanta
2.9
Corners won · league 4.4
3.3
3.3
Corners conceded · league 4.4
4.2
2.2
Cards · league 1.9
1.3
2.1
Opponents' cards · league 1.9
0.6
13%
Goals before half-time · league 42%
55%
27%
Goals after 75' · league 23%
18%
50%
Conceded before half-time · league 42%
36%
25%
Conceded after 75' · league 23%
43%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Milan2/5
Atalanta4/5
Both Teams to Score
Milan3/5
Atalanta1/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Milan1/5
Atalanta1/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Milan4/5
Atalanta5/5
First Half Result
Milan3/5
Atalanta4/5
Correct Score
Milan1/5
Atalanta0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction