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Modena vs Hellas Verona

Modena vs Hellas Verona 3-2 Score & Prediction Review

Serie B - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)

Fair result

Modena

3–2

Hellas Verona

2.1Chances (xG)1.6

On these chances Modena would usually take 1.7 points and Hellas Verona 1.1; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Modena.

Modena +1.3 pts vs chancesHellas Verona −1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Modena vs Hellas Verona stats: how the match was played

Serie B

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Modena

Hellas Verona

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

62%

Possession

38%

The match between Modena and Hellas Verona ended 3-2. Our AI model correctly predicted a Modena win with 47% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Both Teams To Score.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Hellas Verona – Catanzaro prediction & betting tips (Oct 16, 2026).

Modena vs Hellas Verona — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie B

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Modena to win

Correct

Our model 47%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 3,442 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.4%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 51%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 6,400 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 2,814 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 74%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 4,505 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 47%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 4,201 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.7% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Modena Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Modena 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 56%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,405 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Hellas Verona Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hellas Verona 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 72%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 3,313 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.7% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Modena vs Hellas Verona 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Modena vs Hellas Verona. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie B - Italy

Modena3

Hellas Verona2

Winner

1X 74%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

· FT

Serie B - Italy

Modena3

Hellas Verona2

Winner

1X 74%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

Full Time

147%

X26%

226%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	27%	73%	52%	48%	63%	37%	85%	15%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	27%	73%	52%	48%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	63%	37%	85%	15%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	24%	76%	56%	44%	81%	19%	93%	7%
	39%	61%	72%	28%	90%	10%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	24%	76%	56%	44%
	39%	61%	72%	28%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	81%	19%	93%	7%
	90%	10%	97%	3%

1st Half

136%

X47%

217%

1st Score

160%

X8%

232%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

32%

X-1

19%

X-X

19%

2-2

10%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

12.1%

1-0

11.6%

2-1

9.3%

2-0

8.5%

0-0

8.0%

0-1

7.5%

1-2

6.3%

2-2

5.0%

3-0

4.5%

3-1

4.4%

0-2

4.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Modena vs Hellas Verona — Recent Form

Modena have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 3rd in the table. Hellas Verona have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 9th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Modena

Hellas Verona

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Modena

2/5

Hellas Verona

4/5

Both Teams to Score

Modena

4/5

Hellas Verona

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Modena

1/5

Hellas Verona

1/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Modena

4/5

Hellas Verona

2/5

First Half Result

Modena

0/5

Hellas Verona

3/5

Correct Score

Modena

1/5

Hellas Verona

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Hellas Verona – Catanzaro prediction & betting tips (Oct 16, 2026).