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Rizespor vs Samsunspor 4-1 Score & Prediction Review

Super Lig - Season 2025/2026 (Round 27)

Fair result
RizesporRizespor

4–1

SamsunsporSamsunspor
1.5Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Rizespor would usually take 1.4 points and Samsunspor 1.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Rizespor.

Rizespor +1.6 pts vs chancesSamsunspor −1.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Rizespor vs Samsunspor stats: how the match was played

Super Lig

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Rizespor had clearly more shots on target

Rizespor

Samsunspor

6

Shots on target

4

4

Big chances

2

5

Corners

11

2

Yellow cards

1

46%

Possession

54%

The match between Rizespor and Samsunspor ended 4-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Rizespor win with 40% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rizespor – Trabzonspor prediction & betting tips (Oct 26, 2026).

Rizespor vs Samsunspor — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Super Lig

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rizespor to win

Correct
Our model 40%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 3,635 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,748 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 5,363 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 67%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,996 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 6,718 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Rizespor Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rizespor 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 58%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 3,499 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Samsunspor Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Samsunspor 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,678 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.4% of the time (bookmakers said 63.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Rizespor vs Samsunspor 4-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Rizespor vs Samsunspor. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Super Lig - Turkey
RizesporRizespor4
SamsunsporSamsunspor1

Winner

1X 65%

BTTS*

Yes 58%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 57%

Full Time

140%
X25%
235%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT21%79%45%55%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT57%43%81%19%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Rizespor26%74%58%42%
Samsunspor29%71%62%38%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Rizespor82%18%94%6%
Samsunspor84%16%95%5%

1st Half

133%
X43%
224%

1st Score

151%
X6%
243%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

25%

X-X

17%

2-2

17%

X-1

15%

X-2

11%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.8%

2-1

9.0%

1-0

8.3%

1-2

8.1%

0-1

7.5%

2-0

6.1%

2-2

6.1%

0-0

5.7%

0-2

5.2%

3-1

4.3%

1-3

3.7%

3-0

3.1%

3-2

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rizespor – Trabzonspor prediction & betting tips (Oct 26, 2026).

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