Gençlerbirliği vs Fenerbahçe 2-1 Score & Prediction Review
Super Lig - Season 2026/2027 (Round 1)
Gençlerbirliği won with less than half the chances
Gençlerbirliği2–1
FenerbahçeOn these chances Gençlerbirliği would usually take 0.3 points and Fenerbahçe 2.6; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Fenerbahçe.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Gençlerbirliği vs Fenerbahçe stats: how the match was played
Super Lig
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Fenerbahçe had more than twice the shots on target
Gençlerbirliği
Fenerbahçe
3
Shots on target
11
2
Big chances
6
1
Corners
12
0
Yellow cards
1
29%
Possession
71%
Gençlerbirliği vs Fenerbahçe — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Super Lig
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Fenerbahçe to win
WrongOur track record
In 1,061 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.4%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongOur track record
In 6,481 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,162 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,966 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.4% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
Our model’s pick
Fenerbahçe ahead at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 1,250 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.3% of the time (bookmakers said 51.7%).
Our model’s pick
Gençlerbirliği 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 394 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.5% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).
Our model’s pick
Fenerbahçe 2+ goals
WrongOur track record
In 1,594 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 60.9%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Gençlerbirliği vs Fenerbahçe 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Gençlerbirliği vs Fenerbahçe. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Gençlerbirliği2
Fenerbahçe1Winner
2 65%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
0-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 58%
Gençlerbirliği2Fenerbahçe1Winner
2 65%
BTTS*
No 51%
Correct Score
0-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 54%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 58%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 23% | 77% | 46% | 54% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 58% | 42% | 79% | 21% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52% | 48% | 82% | 18% |
| 15% | 85% | 41% | 59% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95% | 5% | 99% | 1% |
| 67% | 33% | 85% | 15% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
45%
X-2
19%
X-X
12%
1-1
7%
1-2
5%
X-1
5%
2-X
4%
1-X
3%
2-1
1%
Correct Score
0-1
12.0%
0-2
11.2%
1-2
9.8%
1-1
9.3%
0-3
7.8%
0-0
6.6%
1-3
6.3%
1-0
4.8%
2-2
4.3%
2-1
3.9%
2-3
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score