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Crvena Zvezda vs Napredak 4-0 Score & Prediction Review

Superliga - Season 2025/2026 (Round 26)

Fair result
Crvena ZvezdaCrvena Zvezda

4–0

NapredakNapredak
2.2Chances (xG)0.6

On these chances Crvena Zvezda would usually take 2.4 points and Napredak 0.4; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Crvena Zvezda.

Crvena Zvezda +0.6 pts vs chancesNapredak −0.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Crvena Zvezda vs Napredak stats: how the match was played

Superliga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Crvena Zvezda had more than twice the shots on target

Crvena Zvezda

Napredak

9

Shots on target

0

2

Big chances

1

15

Corners

2

2

Yellow cards

0

78%

Possession

22%

The match between Crvena Zvezda and Napredak ended 4-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Crvena Zvezda win with 82% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Crvena Zvezda – Mladost Lučani prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).

Crvena Zvezda vs Napredak — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Superliga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Crvena Zvezda to win

Correct
Our model 82%Bookmakers 94%

Our track record

In 67 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 83.6% of the time (bookmakers said 82.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 5,563 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 66%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 1,118 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.6% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 3.5 goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 172 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 50–55%.

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Crvena Zvezda ahead at half-time

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 300 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.0% of the time (bookmakers said 58.0%).

Crvena Zvezda Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 76%Bookmakers 90%

Our track record

In 836 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.3% of the time (bookmakers said 76.6%).

Napredak Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Napredak 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 90%Bookmakers 91%

Our track record

In 133 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 90–95% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 88.0% of the time (bookmakers said 88.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Crvena Zvezda vs Napredak 4-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Crvena Zvezda vs Napredak. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Superliga - Serbia
Crvena ZvezdaCrvena Zvezda4
NapredakNapredak0

Winner

1 82%

BTTS*

No 56%

Correct Score

2-0 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 66%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 55%

Full Time

182%
X12%
26%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT15%85%34%66%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT45%55%65%35%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Crvena Zvezda7%93%24%76%
Napredak66%34%90%10%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Crvena Zvezda48%52%70%30%
Napredak98%2%100%1%

1st Half

158%
X30%
212%

1st Score

177%
X3%
220%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

58%

X-1

18%

X-X

7%

2-2

4%

1-X

3%

X-2

3%

2-1

3%

2-X

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

2-0

12.4%

3-0

11.2%

1-0

9.1%

2-1

8.3%

3-1

7.5%

1-1

5.6%

0-0

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Crvena Zvezda – Mladost Lučani prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).

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Crvena Zvezda vs Napredak 4-0 Score, Predictions & Stats | MyGameOdds