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Crvena Zvezda vs Novi Pazar 2-0 Score & Prediction Review

Superliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 4)

Fair result
Crvena ZvezdaCrvena Zvezda

2–0

Novi PazarNovi Pazar
2.0Chances (xG)1.6

On these chances Crvena Zvezda would usually take 1.6 points and Novi Pazar 1.1; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Crvena Zvezda.

Crvena Zvezda +1.4 pts vs chancesNovi Pazar −1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Crvena Zvezda vs Novi Pazar stats: how the match was played

Superliga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Crvena Zvezda

Novi Pazar

7

Shots on target

6

3

Big chances

2

3

Corners

5

4

Yellow cards

1

1

Red cards

0

54%

Possession

46%

The match between Crvena Zvezda and Novi Pazar ended 2-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Crvena Zvezda win with 85% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Both Teams To Score.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Mačva Šabac – Crvena Zvezda prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Crvena Zvezda vs Novi Pazar — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Superliga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Crvena Zvezda to win

Correct
Our model 85%Bookmakers 87%

Our track record

In 68 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.3% of the time (bookmakers said 82.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 5,711 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 68%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 1,163 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 3.5 goals.

Our model 53%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 187 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 47.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.5% than to our 50–55%.

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Crvena Zvezda ahead at half-time

Correct
Our model 64%Bookmakers 69%

Our track record

In 111 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 66.7% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Crvena Zvezda Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 79%Bookmakers 86%

Our track record

In 829 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Novi Pazar Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Novi Pazar 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 92%Bookmakers 84%

Our track record

In 126 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 90–95% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.7% of the time (bookmakers said 88.5%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Crvena Zvezda vs Novi Pazar 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Crvena Zvezda vs Novi Pazar. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Superliga - Serbia
Crvena ZvezdaCrvena Zvezda2
Novi PazarNovi Pazar0

Winner

1 85%

BTTS*

No 59%

Correct Score

2-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 68%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 57%

Full Time

185%
X10%
25%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT13%87%32%68%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT43%57%63%37%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Crvena Zvezda5%95%21%79%
Novi Pazar71%30%91%9%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Crvena Zvezda45%55%66%34%
Novi Pazar98%2%100%0%

1st Half

163%
X28%
29%

1st Score

181%
X3%
216%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

61%

X-1

18%

X-X

7%

2-1

3%

2-2

3%

1-X

2%

X-2

2%

2-X

2%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

2-0

13.2%

3-0

11.9%

1-0

8.8%

2-1

7.7%

3-1

6.9%

1-1

4.9%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Mačva Šabac – Crvena Zvezda prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

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