Italy vs Türkiye Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
UEFA Nations League - Season 2026/2027 League A (Group Stage) (Round 4)
Italy vs Turkey — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · UEFA Nations League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Italy to win
Our track record
In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 46.7% of the time (bookmakers said 46.8%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our track record
In 385 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.9% of the time (bookmakers said 65.1%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our track record
In 1,096 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.8% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our track record
In 274 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.0% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our track record
In 1,163 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.2% than to our 35–40%.
Our model’s pick
Italy 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 1,815 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.8% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Turkey 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 967 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.7% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Italy vs Turkey — AI Betting Odds & Market Probabilities
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Italy vs Turkey. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Italy–
Turkey–Winner
1X 63%
BTTS**
Yes 66%
Correct Score
1-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 68%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 57%
Italy–Turkey–Winner
1X 63%
BTTS**
Yes 66%
Correct Score
1-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 68%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 57%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 14% | 86% | 32% | 68% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 43% | 57% | 69% | 31% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24% | 76% | 50% | 50% |
 | 27% | 73% | 54% | 46% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74% | 26% | 89% | 11% |
| 77% | 23% | 90% | 10% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
26%
2-2
21%
X-1
15%
X-X
12%
X-2
10%
2-X
5%
1-X
4%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
8.7%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
7.7%
2-2
6.5%
1-0
5.6%
3-1
5.2%
0-1
5.1%
2-0
4.7%
0-2
4.4%
3-2
4.3%
1-3
4.1%
2-3
3.9%
3-0
3.2%
0-0
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Italy vs Turkey — Recent Form
Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
ItalyTurkeyBoth Teams to Score
ItalyTurkeyOver/Under 2.5 Goals
ItalyTurkeyOver/Under 3.5 Goals
ItalyTurkeyFirst Half Result
ItalyTurkeyCorrect Score
ItalyTurkey