TPS vs Jaro 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Veikkausliiga - Season 2026 (Round 4)

Fair result

TPS

0–1

Jaro

2.3Chances (xG)1.6

On these chances TPS would usually take 1.8 points and Jaro 1.0; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: TPS.

TPS −1.8 pts vs chancesJaro +2.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

TPS vs Jaro stats: how the match was played

Veikkausliiga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

TPS had clearly more shots on target

TPS

Jaro

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

69%

Possession

31%

The match between TPS and Jaro ended 0-1. Our AI model predicted a TPS win at 49% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Jaro – Mariehamn prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).

TPS vs Jaro — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Veikkausliiga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

TPS to win

Wrong

Our model 49%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 3,438 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.4% of the time (bookmakers said 50.4%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 57%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,591 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 57%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 5,242 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 67%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,906 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.9%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 39%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 2,005 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.2% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

TPS Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

TPS 2+ goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: TPS 0–1 goals.

Our model 50%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 1,834 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.8% than to our 50–55%.

Jaro Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Jaro 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 68%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,221 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

TPS vs Jaro 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for TPS vs Jaro. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Veikkausliiga - Finland

TPS0

Jaro1

Winner

1X 73%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 56%

· FT

Veikkausliiga - Finland

TPS0

Jaro1

Winner

1X 73%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 56%

Full Time

149%

X24%

227%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	20%	80%	43%	57%	56%	44%	80%	20%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	20%	80%	43%	57%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	56%	44%	80%	20%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	20%	80%	50%	50%	76%	24%	90%	10%
	37%	63%	68%	32%	88%	12%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	20%	80%	50%	50%
	37%	63%	68%	32%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	76%	24%	90%	10%
	88%	12%	96%	4%

1st Half

136%

X39%

225%

1st Score

155%

X6%

239%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

31%

X-1

16%

X-X

14%

2-2

14%

X-2

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

10.7%

2-1

10.1%

1-0

8.8%

2-0

7.7%

1-2

7.0%

2-2

6.0%

0-1

5.8%

0-0

5.7%

3-1

5.0%

3-0

4.9%

0-2

3.8%

3-2

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

TPS vs Jaro — Recent Form

Jaro have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 4 matches and currently sit 5th in the table. TPS have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 4 matches and currently sit 3rd in the table.

Last 5 matches

Jaro

TPS

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Jaro

2/5

TPS

0/5

Both Teams to Score

Jaro

2/5

TPS

1/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Jaro

0/5

TPS

1/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Jaro

5/5

TPS

5/5

First Half Result

Jaro

3/4

TPS

2/4

Correct Score

Jaro

0/5

TPS

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Jaro – Mariehamn prediction & betting tips (Oct 17, 2026).