Shot-shy
5/10VPS failed to score in 5 of their last 10 (league 28%).
VPS vs Gnistan Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Veikkausliiga - Season 2026 (Round 5)
Riding their luck
Gnistan are taking more points than their chances usually bring
+4points more than their chances usually bring in their last 10
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Gnistan 31% to winVPS 40%
VPS vs Gnistan score prediction
Veikkausliiga
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.7 goals in total, a little over the Veikkausliiga average of 2.6.
goals expected
VPS1.5
Gnistan1.2Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for VPS vs Gnistan: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
VPS vs Gnistan — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Veikkausliiga
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
VPS to win
Our model 45%Bookmakers 40%
Our track record
In 3,556 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 46.7% of the time (bookmakers said 46.8%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 58%Bookmakers 58%
Our track record
In 5,591 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 55%Bookmakers 53%
Our track record
In 5,104 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 68%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 3,906 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.9%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 39%Bookmakers 41%
Our track record
In 2,003 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.2% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
VPS Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
VPS 0–1 goals
Our model 55%Bookmakers 58%
Our track record
In 2,766 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Gnistan Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Gnistan 0–1 goals
Our model 66%Bookmakers 62%
Our track record
In 3,224 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
VPS vs Gnistan — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for VPS vs Gnistan. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
VPS–
Gnistan–Winner
1X 69%
BTTS*
Yes 58%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 58%
VPS–Gnistan–Winner
1X 69%
BTTS*
Yes 58%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 58%
Full Time
145%
X25%
231%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 22% | 78% | 45% | 55% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 58% | 42% | 81% | 19% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23% | 77% | 55% | 45% |
| 33% | 67% | 66% | 34% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80% | 20% | 93% | 7% |
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
137%
X39%
224%
1st Score
153%
X6%
241%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
29%
2-2
16%
X-1
14%
X-X
14%
X-2
10%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
9.4%
1-2
7.6%
0-1
7.2%
2-0
6.9%
0-0
5.9%
2-2
5.8%
3-1
4.6%
0-2
4.4%
3-0
3.6%
1-3
3.2%
3-2
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
VPS vs Gnistan: the stats that stand out
Veikkausliiga
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%VPS: shot-shy and always chasing · Gnistan: leaky
5/10Always chasing
7/10VPS conceded first in 7 of their last 10 (league 47%).
Leaky
1/10Gnistan kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 10 (league 28%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →VPS vs Gnistan: attack vs defence
Veikkausliiga
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Veikkausliiga teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- VPS: weak attack, weak defence (1.09 xG, 1.50 xGA a game)
- Gnistan: good attack, weak defence (1.74 xG, 1.73 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →VPS vs Gnistan form and luck check
Veikkausliiga
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Veikkausliiga gamesGnistan are taking more points than their chances usually bring
- VPSBookmakers: 40% to win today.−1.8
- GnistanBookmakers: 31% to win today.+4.2
Last 5 matches
GnistanD
D
W
D
VPSL
L
L
W
W
D
L
Strength rank: VPS 9th of 12 · Gnistan 7th of 12
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 12 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →VPS vs Gnistan: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Veikkausliiga
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Veikkausliiga gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Gnistan games more often than the Veikkausliiga average (51%), in VPS games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 46%
VPS4 of 10
Gnistan5 of 10
BTTSleague 51%
VPS3 of 10
Gnistan8 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 177 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →VPS vs Gnistan corners, cards and goal times
Veikkausliiga
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameGnistan score late
VPS
Gnistan
5.0
Corners won · league 5.1
5.8
4.2
Corners conceded · league 5.1
4.2
2.4
Cards · league 1.8
1.6
1.6
Opponents' cards · league 1.8
2.0
57%
Goals before half-time · league 48%
47%
14%
Goals after 75' · league 20%
33%
72%
Conceded before half-time · league 48%
67%
6%
Conceded after 75' · league 20%
17%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
VPS5/5
Gnistan0/5
Both Teams to Score
VPS0/5
Gnistan4/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
VPS2/5
Gnistan1/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
VPS4/5
Gnistan5/5
First Half Result
VPS2/4
Gnistan3/4
Correct Score
VPS0/5
Gnistan3/5
correct predictionwrong prediction