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Northern Ireland vs Germany 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

WC Qualification Europe - Season 2026 Group Stage (Group Stage) (Round 4)

Fair result
Northern IrelandNorthern Ireland

0–1

GermanyGermany
1.0Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Northern Ireland would usually take 1.3 points and Germany 1.4; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Germany.

Northern Ireland −1.3 pts vs chancesGermany +1.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Northern Ireland vs Germany stats: how the match was played

WC Qualification Europe

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Northern Ireland had clearly more shots on target

Northern Ireland

Germany

3

Shots on target

2

0

Big chances

2

4

Corners

5

4

Yellow cards

2

32%

Possession

68%

The match between Northern Ireland and Germany ended 0-1. Our AI model correctly predicted an Germany win with 44% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Northern Ireland vs Germany — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · WC Qualification Europe

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Germany to win

Correct
Our model 44%Bookmakers 71%

Our track record

In 3,596 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 6,458 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 2,836 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 71%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 4,551 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Germany ahead at half-time.

Our model 43%Bookmakers 36%

Our track record

In 2,228 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 37.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Northern Ireland Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Northern Ireland 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 70%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 2,671 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Germany Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Germany 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Germany 2+ goals.

Our model 58%Bookmakers 33%

Our track record

In 635 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Northern Ireland vs Germany 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Northern Ireland vs Germany. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
WC Qualification Europe - Europe
Northern IrelandNorthern Ireland0
GermanyGermany1

Winner

X2 71%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

Full Time

129%
X26%
244%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT27%73%51%49%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT61%39%83%17%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Northern Ireland37%63%70%30%
Germany26%74%58%42%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Northern Ireland89%11%97%4%
Germany81%19%92%8%

1st Half

123%
X43%
235%

1st Score

142%
X8%
250%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

25%

1-1

18%

X-X

17%

X-2

14%

X-1

11%

2-X

7%

1-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.1%

0-1

10.3%

1-0

8.4%

1-2

8.2%

0-0

7.8%

0-2

7.5%

2-1

6.7%

2-2

5.2%

2-0

4.8%

1-3

4.1%

0-3

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

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