Portugal vs Armenia 9-1 Score & Prediction Review

WC Qualification Europe - Season 2026 Group Stage (Group Stage) (Round 10)

Fair result

Portugal

9–1

Armenia

5.0Chances (xG)0.4

On these chances Portugal would usually take 2.9 points and Armenia 0.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Portugal.

Portugal +0.1 pts vs chancesArmenia 0.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Portugal vs Armenia stats: how the match was played

WC Qualification Europe

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Portugal had more than twice the shots on target

Portugal

Armenia

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

76%

Possession

25%

The match between Portugal and Armenia ended 9-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Portugal win with 79% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

Portugal vs Armenia — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · WC Qualification Europe

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Portugal to win

Correct

Our model 79%Bookmakers 95%

Our track record

In 144 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 84.7% of the time (bookmakers said 80.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 62%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,451 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 58%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 5,305 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 3.5 goals.

Our model 62%Bookmakers 34%

Our track record

In 246 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 47.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 47.1% than to our 60–65%.

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Portugal ahead at half-time

Correct

Our model 61%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 111 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.4% of the time (bookmakers said 63.7%).

Portugal Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Portugal 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 69%Bookmakers 90%

Our track record

In 2,672 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Armenia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Armenia 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 90%Bookmakers 92%

Our track record

In 127 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 90–95% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 86.6% of the time (bookmakers said 88.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Portugal vs Armenia 9-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Portugal vs Armenia. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

WC Qualification Europe - Europe

Portugal9

Armenia1

Winner

1 79%

BTTS*

No 62%

Correct Score

2-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

· FT

WC Qualification Europe - Europe

Portugal9

Armenia1

Winner

1 79%

BTTS*

No 62%

Correct Score

2-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

Full Time

179%

X15%

27%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	22%	78%	42%	58%	52%	48%	70%	30%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	22%	78%	42%	58%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	52%	48%	70%	30%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	10%	90%	31%	69%	55%	45%	74%	26%
	70%	30%	90%	10%	97%	3%	99%	1%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	10%	90%	31%	69%
	70%	30%	90%	10%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	55%	45%	74%	26%
	97%	3%	99%	1%

1st Half

161%

X27%

212%

1st Score

173%

X6%

220%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

55%

X-1

19%

X-X

2-1

2-X

2-2

1-X

X-2

1-2

Correct Score

2-0

13.8%

1-0

13.7%

3-0

10.4%

2-1

7.3%

0-0

6.5%

3-1

5.2%

1-1

4.9%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score