Belgium vs Senegal 3-2 Score & Prediction Review
World Cup - Season 2026 Round of 32 (Knock Out)
Belgium vs Senegal stats: how the match was played
World Cup
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Even on chances
Belgium
Senegal
2.3
Chances (xG)
2.0
5
Shots on target
5
2
Big chances
4
4
Corners
2
1
Yellow cards
1
52%
Possession
48%
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Belgium vs Senegal — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · World Cup
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Belgium to win
WrongOur track record
In 3,607 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.7% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 2,487 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.0% of the time (bookmakers said 61.8%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,309 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,417 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Our model’s pick
Belgium 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,785 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.5% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).
Our model’s pick
Senegal 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,630 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.2% of the time (bookmakers said 63.7%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Belgium vs Senegal 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Belgium vs Senegal. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Belgium3
Senegal2Winner
1X 69%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 54%
Belgium3Senegal2Winner
1X 69%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 54%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 19% | 81% | 41% | 59% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 54% | 47% | 78% | 22% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23% | 77% | 52% | 48% |
 | 32% | 68% | 63% | 37% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77% | 23% | 91% | 9% |
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
Correct Score
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.1%
1-0
8.0%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
6.7%
0-1
6.5%
2-2
6.3%
3-1
5.1%
0-0
4.8%
0-2
4.4%
3-0
3.7%
3-2
3.5%
1-3
3.4%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score