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Paraguay vs France

Paraguay vs France 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

World Cup - Season 2026 Round of 16 (Knock Out)

Fair result

Paraguay

0–1

France

0.4Chances (xG)2.1

On these chances Paraguay would usually take 0.4 points and France 2.5; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: France.

Paraguay −0.4 pts vs chancesFrance +0.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Paraguay vs France stats: how the match was played

World Cup

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

France had more than twice the shots on target

Paraguay

France

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

24%

Possession

76%

The match between Paraguay and France ended 0-1. Our AI model correctly predicted an France win with 68% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Paraguay vs France — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · World Cup

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

France to win

Correct

Our model 68%Bookmakers 82%

Our track record

In 623 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.9% of the time (bookmakers said 71.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 2,487 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.0% of the time (bookmakers said 61.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 2,862 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 76%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 3,550 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.1%).

Paraguay Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Paraguay 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 90%Bookmakers 90%

Our track record

In 118 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.6% of the time (bookmakers said 84.5%).

France Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

France 2+ goals

Wrong

Our model 56%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 1,576 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.0% of the time (bookmakers said 60.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Paraguay vs France 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Paraguay vs France. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

World Cup - World

Paraguay0

France1

Winner

2 68%

BTTS*

No 62%

Correct Score

0-1 16%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

· FT

World Cup - World

Paraguay0

France1

Winner

2 68%

BTTS*

No 62%

Correct Score

0-1 16%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

111%

X21%

268%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	29%	71%	55%	45%	66%	34%	84%	16%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	29%	71%	55%	45%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	66%	34%	84%	16%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	61%	39%	89%	11%	98%	2%	100%	0%
	16%	84%	44%	56%	70%	30%	87%	13%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	61%	39%	89%	11%
	16%	84%	44%	56%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	98%	2%	100%	0%
	70%	30%	87%	13%

Correct Score

0-1

15.7%

0-2

14.7%

0-3

9.3%

1-1

9.3%

1-2

8.8%

0-0

8.5%

1-3

5.6%

1-0

5.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score