Spain vs Argentina 1-0 Score & Prediction Review
World Cup - Season 2026 Final (Knock Out)
Spain vs Argentina stats: how the match was played
World Cup
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Spain created more than twice the chances
Spain
Argentina
2.5
Chances (xG)
0.1
12
Shots on target
0
4
Big chances
0
9
Corners
4
0
Yellow cards
4
0
Red cards
1
65%
Possession
35%
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Spain vs Argentina — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · World Cup
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Spain to win
WrongOur track record
In 3,626 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
WrongOur track record
In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Under 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 105 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.2% than to our 60–65%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 937 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).
Our model’s pick
Spain 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Our model’s pick
Argentina 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,695 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Spain vs Argentina 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Spain vs Argentina. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Spain1
Argentina0Winner
1X 67%
BTTS*
Yes 64%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 51%
Spain1Argentina0Winner
1X 67%
BTTS*
Yes 64%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 51%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 17% | 83% | 37% | 63% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 49% | 51% | 74% | 26% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 22% | 78% | 51% | 49% |
 | 30% | 70% | 60% | 40% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 25% | 90% | 10% |
| 82% | 18% | 94% | 7% |
Correct Score
1-1
10.1%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
7.4%
1-0
7.0%
2-2
6.5%
2-0
6.0%
0-1
5.9%
3-1
5.1%
0-2
4.3%
0-0
4.1%
3-2
3.9%
1-3
3.7%
3-0
3.5%
2-3
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score