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SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04

SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Bundesliga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 5)

Fair result

SC Freiburg

2–1

Schalke 04

1.4Chances (xG)0.4

On these chances SC Freiburg would usually take 2.2 points and Schalke 04 0.6; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: SC Freiburg.

SC Freiburg +0.9 pts vs chancesSchalke 04 −0.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 stats: how the match was played

Bundesliga

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

SC Freiburg had more than twice the shots on target

SC Freiburg

Schalke 04

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

50%

Possession

50%

The match between SC Freiburg and Schalke 04 ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a SC Freiburg win with 44% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: FC Köln – Schalke 04 prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Bundesliga

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

SC Freiburg to win

Correct

Our model 44%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 3,596 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 61%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,450 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 62%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 3,079 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 60%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,379 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: SC Freiburg ahead at half-time.

Our model 36%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 1,214 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.9% of the time (bookmakers said 35.1%).

SC Freiburg Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

SC Freiburg 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: SC Freiburg 2+ goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 1,850 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Schalke 04 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Schalke 04 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 61%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 2,651 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Bundesliga - Germany

SC Freiburg2

Schalke 041

Winner

1X 68%

BTTS*

Yes 61%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 62%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 50%

· FT

Bundesliga - Germany

SC Freiburg2

Schalke 041

Winner

1X 68%

BTTS*

Yes 61%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 62%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 50%

Full Time

144%

X24%

232%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	18%	82%	38%	62%	50%	50%	75%	25%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	18%	82%	38%	62%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	50%	50%	75%	25%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	23%	77%	51%	49%	76%	24%	90%	10%
	31%	69%	61%	39%	83%	17%	93%	7%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	23%	77%	51%	49%
	31%	69%	61%	39%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	76%	24%	90%	10%
	83%	17%	93%	7%

1st Half

134%

X36%

229%

1st Score

147%

X5%

248%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

25%

2-2

21%

X-X

14%

X-1

12%

X-2

11%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

10.3%

2-1

8.9%

1-2

7.3%

1-0

7.2%

2-2

6.5%

2-0

5.9%

0-1

5.7%

3-1

4.9%

0-0

4.7%

0-2

4.1%

3-2

4.0%

3-0

3.9%

1-3

3.4%

2-3

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 — Recent Form

SC Freiburg have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 3rd in the table. Schalke 04 have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 15th in the table.

Last 5 matches

SC Freiburg

Schalke 04

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Schalke 04

3/5

SC Freiburg

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Schalke 04

2/5

SC Freiburg

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Schalke 04

2/5

SC Freiburg

4/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Schalke 04

4/5

SC Freiburg

3/5

First Half Result

Schalke 04

3/5

SC Freiburg

1/5

Correct Score

Schalke 04

0/5

SC Freiburg

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: FC Köln – Schalke 04 prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).