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Liverpool vs Chelsea

Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips

Carabao Cup - Season 2026/2027 8th Finals (Knock Out)

Get our AI football prediction and stats for Liverpool vs Chelsea: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.

Liverpool vs Chelsea — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Carabao Cup

For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Liverpool to win

Our model 46%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 380 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 27.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.8% than to our 45–50%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Our model 64%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,481 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Our model 67%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 1,157 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Our model 56%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 938 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.1% of the time (bookmakers said 60.1%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Liverpool ahead at half-time

Our model 38%Bookmakers 29%

Our track record

In 1,233 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.1% than to our 35–40%.

Liverpool Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Liverpool 2+ goals

Our model 53%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Chelsea Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chelsea 0–1 goals

Our model 60%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 632 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.7% than to our 55–60%.

Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.

Liverpool vs Chelsea — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market

Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Liverpool vs Chelsea. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.

Carabao Cup - England

Liverpool–

Chelsea–

Winner

1X 68%

BTTS*

Yes 64%

Correct Score

2-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 67%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 54%

Carabao Cup - England

Liverpool–

Chelsea–

Winner

1X 68%

BTTS*

Yes 64%

Correct Score

2-1 09%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 67%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 54%

Full Time

146%

X22%

232%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	15%	85%	33%	67%	46%	54%	72%	28%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	15%	85%	33%	67%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	46%	54%	72%	28%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	21%	79%	47%	53%	72%	28%	88%	12%
	31%	69%	60%	40%	82%	18%	93%	7%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	21%	79%	47%	53%
	31%	69%	60%	40%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	72%	28%	88%	12%
	82%	18%	93%	7%

1st Half

138%

X38%

224%

1st Score

159%

X4%

238%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

30%

2-2

18%

X-1

15%

X-X

12%

X-2

11%

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

2-1

9.2%

1-1

8.7%

1-2

7.2%

2-2

6.8%

1-0

6.2%

2-0

5.7%

3-1

5.4%

0-1

5.2%

3-2

4.3%

3-0

4.0%

0-0

3.9%

1-3

3.7%

0-2

3.6%

2-3

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Liverpool vs Chelsea: Over 2.5 & BTTS?

Carabao Cup

How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.

How to read it

a game where it happenedleague averageup to 10 recent Carabao Cup gamesBTTS = both teams scored

Both teams score in Chelsea games more often than the Carabao Cup average (55%).

Over 2.5 goalsleague 56%

Chelsea4 of 6

BTTSleague 55%

Chelsea4 of 6

Calculated by MyGameOdds

How it works

For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 91 games played here in the last 12 months.

How we measure →

Liverpool vs Chelsea corners, cards and goal times

Carabao Cup

Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.

How to read it

league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameChelsea: last 6 with these statsPro · free for now

Chelsea score late

Liverpool

Chelsea

–

Corners won · league 4.9

5.3

–

Corners conceded · league 4.9

4.2

–

Cards · league 1.6

2.5

–

Opponents' cards · league 1.6

1.7

–

Goals before half-time · league 43%

18%

–

Goals after 75' · league 24%

41%

–

Conceded before half-time · league 43%

18%

–

Conceded after 75' · league 24%

18%

Calculated by MyGameOdds

How it works

We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.

How we measure →

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Liverpool

1/1

Chelsea

2/2

Both Teams to Score

Liverpool

1/1

Chelsea

1/2

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Liverpool

1/1

Chelsea

1/2

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Liverpool

0/1

Chelsea

1/2

First Half Result

Liverpool

1/1

Chelsea

1/2

Correct Score

Liverpool

0/1

Chelsea

0/2

correct predictionwrong prediction