Leaky
0/10FC Barcelona kept no clean sheet in their last 10 (league 22%).
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FC Barcelona vs Aston Villa Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Champions League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 4)
Leaky
FC Barcelona kept no clean sheet in their last 10 (league 22%).
0/10Clean sheets · FC Barcelona
Bookmakers: FC Barcelona 77% to win
Get our AI football prediction and stats for FC Barcelona vs Aston Villa: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
FC Barcelona vs Aston Villa — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Champions League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
FC Barcelona to win
Our model 71%Bookmakers 77%
Our track record
In 320 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 79.4% of the time (bookmakers said 76.1%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 55%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 6,459 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 69%Bookmakers 79%
Our track record
In 1,156 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 50%Bookmakers 39%
Our track record
In 181 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 47.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.5% than to our 50–55%.
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
FC Barcelona ahead at half-time
Our model 57%Bookmakers 60%
Our track record
In 300 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.7% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
FC Barcelona Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
FC Barcelona 2+ goals
Our model 71%Bookmakers 83%
Our track record
In 1,580 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.8% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Aston Villa Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Aston Villa 0–1 goals
Our model 80%Bookmakers 72%
Our track record
In 2,571 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
FC Barcelona vs Aston Villa — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for FC Barcelona vs Aston Villa. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
FC Barcelona–
Aston Villa–Winner
1 71%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
2-0 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 69%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 60%
FC Barcelona–Aston Villa–Winner
1 71%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
2-0 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 69%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 60%
Full Time
171%
X16%
213%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 14% | 86% | 31% | 69% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 40% | 60% | 64% | 36% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | 90% | 29% | 71% |
 | 54% | 46% | 80% | 20% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53% | 47% | 73% | 27% |
| 93% | 7% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
157%
X28%
215%
1st Score
171%
X3%
225%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
52%
X-1
17%
2-2
8%
X-X
7%
X-2
4%
2-X
4%
1-X
3%
2-1
3%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
2-0
9.1%
2-1
8.3%
1-0
7.5%
3-0
7.5%
3-1
7.5%
1-1
6.9%
2-2
4.7%
3-2
3.9%
1-2
3.3%
0-0
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
FC Barcelona vs Aston Villa: the stats that stand out
Champions League
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%FC Barcelona: leaky, always chasing and banker as favourites
0/10Always chasing
7/10FC Barcelona conceded first in 7 of their last 10 (league 48%).
Banker as favourites
7/9FC Barcelona won 7 of 9 as favourites (league 60%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →FC Barcelona vs Aston Villa: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Champions League
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Champions League gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in FC Barcelona games more often than the Champions League average (59%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 66%
FC Barcelona8 of 10
BTTSleague 59%
FC Barcelona9 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 189 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →FC Barcelona vs Aston Villa form and luck check
Champions League
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Champions League gamesFC Barcelona: results in line with their chances
- FC BarcelonaBookmakers: 77% to win today.−2.6
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
How we measure →FC Barcelona vs Aston Villa corners, cards and goal times
Champions League
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameGoal times close to the Champions League average
FC Barcelona
Aston Villa
5.3
Corners won · league 4.7
–
2.4
Corners conceded · league 4.7
–
1.3
Cards · league 1.8
–
1.6
Opponents' cards · league 1.8
–
32%
Goals before half-time · league 42%
–
16%
Goals after 75' · league 20%
–
63%
Conceded before half-time · league 42%
–
25%
Conceded after 75' · league 20%
–
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
FC Barcelona2/3
Aston Villa0/3
Both Teams to Score
FC Barcelona3/3
Aston Villa2/3
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
FC Barcelona3/3
Aston Villa3/3
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
FC Barcelona0/3
Aston Villa0/3
First Half Result
FC Barcelona2/3
Aston Villa0/3
Correct Score
FC Barcelona0/3
Aston Villa0/3
correct predictionwrong prediction