Always on the scoresheet
0/10FC Bayern München scored in all of their last 10 (league 23% fail to score).
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Atlético de Madrid vs FC Bayern München Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Champions League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 4)
Clinical
Atlético Madrid are scoring more goals than their chances (xG) usually bring
+5goals more than their chances (xG) in their last 10
80% of teams scoring this many more goals than their chances scored fewer in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Atlético Madrid 28% to winFC Bayern München 48%
Atlético Madrid vs FC Bayern München score prediction
Champions League
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
3.8 goals in total, a little over the Champions League average of 3.5.
goals expected
Atlético Madrid1.8FC Bayern München2.0Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Atlético Madrid vs FC Bayern München: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Atlético Madrid vs FC Bayern München — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Champions League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
FC Bayern München to win
Our model 45%Bookmakers 48%
Our track record
In 3,596 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 62%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 2,449 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 64%Bookmakers 69%
Our track record
In 3,079 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 59%Bookmakers 53%
Our track record
In 936 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.9% of the time (bookmakers said 60.0%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
FC Bayern München ahead at half-time
Our model 38%Bookmakers 38%
Our track record
In 2,001 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.2% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).
Atlético Madrid Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Atlético Madrid 0–1 goals
Our model 61%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 3,455 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).
FC Bayern München Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
FC Bayern München 2+ goals
Our model 50%Bookmakers 58%
Our track record
In 1,013 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.3%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Atlético Madrid vs FC Bayern München — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Atlético Madrid vs FC Bayern München. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Atlético Madrid–
FC Bayern München–Winner
X2 68%
BTTS*
Yes 62%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 64%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 51%
Atlético Madrid–FC Bayern München–Winner
X2 68%
BTTS*
Yes 62%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 64%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 51%
Full Time
132%
X23%
245%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 17% | 83% | 36% | 64% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 49% | 51% | 73% | 27% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32% | 68% | 61% | 39% |
| 23% | 77% | 50% | 50% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83% | 17% | 94% | 6% |
| 73% | 27% | 88% | 12% |
1st Half
123%
X38%
238%
1st Score
141%
X4%
255%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
32%
1-1
16%
X-X
13%
X-2
13%
X-1
12%
1-X
5%
2-X
4%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
9.6%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.5%
0-1
6.2%
2-2
6.1%
1-0
5.9%
0-2
5.7%
1-3
4.6%
0-0
4.4%
2-0
4.4%
2-3
3.9%
0-3
3.6%
3-1
3.5%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Atlético Madrid vs FC Bayern München: the stats that stand out
Champions League
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%FC Bayern München: always on the scoresheet and leaky
0/10Leaky
1/10FC Bayern München kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 10 (league 23%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Atlético Madrid vs FC Bayern München: attack vs defence
Champions League
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Champions League teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Atlético Madrid: weak attack, weak defence (1.27 xG, 1.69 xGA a game)
- FC Bayern München: good attack, good defence (2.48 xG, 1.45 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Atlético Madrid vs FC Bayern München form and luck check
Champions League
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Champions League gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- Atlético MadridBookmakers: 28% to win today.Clinical · +5 goals+2.9
- FC Bayern MünchenBookmakers: 48% to win today.Clinical · +4 goals−1.1
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
How we measure →Atlético Madrid vs FC Bayern München: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Champions League
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Champions League gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Atlético Madrid and FC Bayern München games more often than the Champions League average (59%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 66%
Atlético Madrid5 of 10
FC Bayern München9 of 10
BTTSleague 59%
Atlético Madrid7 of 10
FC Bayern München9 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 198 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Atlético Madrid vs FC Bayern München corners, cards and goal times
Champions League
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameGoal times close to the Champions League average
Atlético Madrid
FC Bayern München
3.5
Corners won · league 4.7
6.9
5.4
Corners conceded · league 4.7
4.5
1.3
Cards · league 1.8
1.7
2.1
Opponents' cards · league 1.8
2.6
47%
Goals before half-time · league 43%
30%
16%
Goals after 75' · league 20%
21%
69%
Conceded before half-time · league 43%
56%
15%
Conceded after 75' · league 20%
28%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
FC Bayern München1/3
Atlético Madrid2/3
Both Teams to Score
FC Bayern München2/3
Atlético Madrid2/3
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
FC Bayern München3/3
Atlético Madrid1/3
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
FC Bayern München0/3
Atlético Madrid3/3
First Half Result
FC Bayern München0/3
Atlético Madrid0/3
Correct Score
FC Bayern München0/3
Atlético Madrid1/3
correct predictionwrong prediction