Fast starters
8/9Paris Saint Germain scored first in 8 of 9 recent matches with goal times (league 48%).
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Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Champions League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 4)
Fast starters
Paris Saint Germain scored first in 8 of 9 recent matches with goal times (league 48%).
8/9Scored first · Paris Saint Germain
Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain score prediction
Champions League
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
3.8 goals in total, a little over the Champions League average of 3.6.
goals expected
Villarreal1.6Paris Saint Germain2.1Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Champions League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Paris Saint Germain to win
Our model 51%Bookmakers 61%
Our track record
In 2,470 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 62%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 2,450 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 64%Bookmakers 71%
Our track record
In 3,079 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 58%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 256 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.1% than to our 55–60%.
First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 36%Bookmakers 34%
Our track record
In 1,214 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.9% of the time (bookmakers said 35.1%).
Villarreal Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Villarreal 0–1 goals
Our model 64%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 3,455 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).
Paris Saint Germain Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Paris Saint Germain 2+ goals
Our model 55%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 1,013 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.3%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Villarreal–
Paris Saint Germain–Winner
2 51%
BTTS*
Yes 62%
Correct Score
1-2 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 64%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
Villarreal–Paris Saint Germain–Winner
2 51%
BTTS*
Yes 62%
Correct Score
1-2 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 64%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
Full Time
129%
X21%
251%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 16% | 84% | 36% | 64% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 48% | 52% | 73% | 27% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35% | 65% | 64% | 36% |
| 19% | 81% | 45% | 55% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
| 71% | 29% | 87% | 13% |
1st Half
129%
X36%
235%
1st Score
147%
X4%
250%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
30%
1-1
18%
X-2
14%
X-1
12%
X-X
11%
1-X
4%
1-2
4%
2-X
4%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-2
9.7%
1-1
9.1%
0-1
7.2%
0-2
7.0%
2-1
6.7%
2-2
5.7%
1-3
5.7%
1-0
5.3%
0-3
4.4%
2-3
4.2%
0-0
3.7%
2-0
3.4%
3-1
3.2%
3-2
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain: the stats that stand out
Champions League
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Paris Saint Germain: fast starters and always on the scoresheet · Villarreal: leaky
8/9Always on the scoresheet
0/10Paris Saint Germain scored in all of their last 10 (league 22% fail to score).
Leaky
0/8Villarreal kept no clean sheet in their last 8 (league 22%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain: attack vs defence
Champions League
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Champions League teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Villarreal: weak attack, good defence (1.39 xG, 1.57 xGA a game)
- Paris Saint Germain: good attack, weak defence (2.04 xG, 1.72 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Champions League
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averageup to 10 recent Champions League gamesBTTS = both teams scoredVillarreal games go over 2.5 goals more often than the Champions League average (66%), Paris Saint Germain games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 66%
Villarreal7 of 8
Paris Saint Germain6 of 10
BTTSleague 59%
Villarreal5 of 8
Paris Saint Germain7 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 189 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain corners, cards and goal times
Champions League
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameVillarreal: last 8 with these statsParis Saint Germain: last 9 with these statsGoal times close to the Champions League average
Villarreal
Paris Saint Germain
4.0
Corners won · league 4.7
3.4
4.8
Corners conceded · league 4.7
4.8
2.4
Cards · league 1.8
0.9
1.3
Opponents' cards · league 1.8
1.1
36%
Goals before half-time · league 42%
50%
27%
Goals after 75' · league 20%
19%
33%
Conceded before half-time · league 42%
25%
24%
Conceded after 75' · league 20%
17%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Paris Saint Germain1/3
Villarreal3/3
Both Teams to Score
Paris Saint Germain2/3
Villarreal3/3
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Paris Saint Germain3/3
Villarreal3/3
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Paris Saint Germain0/3
Villarreal0/3
First Half Result
Paris Saint Germain2/3
Villarreal1/3
Correct Score
Paris Saint Germain0/3
Villarreal0/3
correct predictionwrong prediction