Always chasing
7/10Derby County conceded first in 7 of their last 10 (league 47%).
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Sheffield United vs Derby County Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Championship - Season 2026/2027 (Round 12)
Unlucky
Derby County are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−5points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Derby County 25% to winSheffield United 49%
Sheffield United vs Derby County score prediction
Championship
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Sheffield United expected to create clearly more
2.8 goals in total, a little over the Championship average of 2.7.
goals expected
Sheffield United1.6Derby County1.1Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Sheffield United vs Derby County: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Sheffield United vs Derby County — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Championship
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Sheffield United to win
Our model 46%Bookmakers 49%
Our track record
In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 60%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 58%Bookmakers 53%
Our track record
In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 65%Bookmakers 69%
Our track record
In 3,986 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 41%Bookmakers 41%
Our track record
In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Sheffield United Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Sheffield United 0–1 goals
Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.
Derby County Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Derby County 0–1 goals
Our model 66%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 3,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Sheffield United vs Derby County — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Sheffield United vs Derby County. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Sheffield United–
Derby County–Winner
1X 71%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
Sheffield United–Derby County–Winner
1X 71%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
Full Time
146%
X25%
229%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 20% | 80% | 43% | 57% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 55% | 45% | 79% | 21% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21% | 79% | 52% | 48% |
| 33% | 67% | 66% | 34% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77% | 23% | 91% | 9% |
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
135%
X41%
224%
1st Score
153%
X5%
242%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
28%
X-1
16%
X-X
15%
2-2
14%
X-2
10%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
11.4%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
8.5%
1-2
7.3%
2-0
7.0%
0-1
6.4%
2-2
6.1%
0-0
5.1%
3-1
5.1%
0-2
4.0%
3-0
3.9%
3-2
3.5%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Sheffield United vs Derby County: the stats that stand out
Championship
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Derby County: always chasing, shot-shy and leaky
7/10Shot-shy
4/10Derby County failed to score in 4 of their last 10 (league 24%).
Leaky
1/10Derby County kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 10 (league 24%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Sheffield United vs Derby County: attack vs defence
Championship
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Championship teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Sheffield United: weak attack, weak defence (1.09 xG, 1.59 xGA a game)
- Derby County: weak attack, weak defence (1.20 xG, 1.56 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Sheffield United vs Derby County form and luck check
Championship
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Championship gamesDerby County are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
- Sheffield UnitedBookmakers: 49% to win today.Clinical · +4 goals+3.4
- Derby CountyBookmakers: 25% to win today.Wasteful · −3 goals−5.0
Last 5 matches
Sheffield UnitedW
L
W
L
L
Derby CountyL
L
D
D
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Sheffield United 11th of 24 · Derby County 17th of 24
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 24 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Sheffield United vs Derby County: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Championship
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Championship gamesBTTS = both teams scoredSheffield United games go over 2.5 goals more often than the Championship average (53%), Derby County games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 53%
Sheffield United7 of 10
Derby County5 of 10
BTTSleague 58%
Sheffield United6 of 10
Derby County5 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 580 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Sheffield United vs Derby County corners, cards and goal times
Championship
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameGoal times close to the Championship average
Sheffield United
Derby County
3.4
Corners won · league 5.2
5.7
6.7
Corners conceded · league 5.2
5.3
2.2
Cards · league 1.9
2.3
2.2
Opponents' cards · league 1.9
1.9
53%
Goals before half-time · league 47%
50%
13%
Goals after 75' · league 21%
25%
50%
Conceded before half-time · league 47%
61%
29%
Conceded after 75' · league 21%
22%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Sheffield United2/5
Derby County2/5
Both Teams to Score
Sheffield United2/5
Derby County3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Sheffield United4/5
Derby County4/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Sheffield United4/5
Derby County4/5
First Half Result
Sheffield United2/5
Derby County2/5
Correct Score
Sheffield United0/5
Derby County2/5
correct predictionwrong prediction