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Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Chance Liga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 11)
Baník Ostrava are scoring fewer goals than their chances (xG) usually bring
77% of teams scoring this many fewer goals than their chances scored more in their next 10 games.
Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha score prediction
Chance Liga
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Sparta Praha expected to create clearly more
2.8 goals in total, a little over the Chance Liga average of 2.7.
goals expected
Baník Ostrava1.1
Sparta Praha1.7Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Chance Liga
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Sparta Praha to win
Our track record
In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our track record
In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our track record
In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our track record
In 3,986 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
Our model’s pick
Sparta Praha ahead at half-time
Our track record
In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Baník Ostrava 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 1,588 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Our model’s pick
Sparta Praha 2+ goals
Our track record
In 1,616 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.0%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Baník Ostrava–
Sparta Praha–Winner
2 58%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-2 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 56%
Baník Ostrava–Sparta Praha–Winner
2 58%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-2 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 56%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 20% | 80% | 41% | 59% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 56% | 45% | 79% | 21% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42% | 58% | 74% | 26% |
| 16% | 84% | 43% | 57% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 8% | 98% | 2% |
| 70% | 30% | 88% | 12% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
36%
X-2
17%
X-X
13%
1-1
11%
X-1
8%
2-X
5%
1-X
4%
1-2
4%
2-1
1%
Correct Score
1-2
10.9%
1-1
10.2%
0-1
9.7%
0-2
8.9%
0-3
6.3%
1-3
6.0%
2-1
5.7%
2-2
5.6%
0-0
5.0%
1-0
4.8%
2-3
3.8%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha: attack vs defence
Chance Liga
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Chance Liga teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Baník Ostrava: weak attack, weak defence (1.33 xG, 1.76 xGA a game)
- Sparta Praha: good attack, good defence (2.00 xG, 1.28 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha form and luck check
Chance Liga
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Chance Liga gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- Baník OstravaBookmakers: 19% to win today.Wasteful · −6 goals−1.0
- Sparta PrahaBookmakers: 58% to win today.−2.2
Last 5 matches
Sparta PrahaBaník OstravaStrength rank: Baník Ostrava 13th of 16 · Sparta Praha 2nd of 16
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 16 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Chance Liga
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Chance Liga gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBaník Ostrava and Sparta Praha games both go over 2.5 goals more often than the Chance Liga average (52%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 273 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Baník Ostrava vs Sparta Praha corners, cards and goal times
Chance Liga
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameGoal times close to the Chance Liga average
Baník Ostrava
Sparta Praha
5.2
Corners won · league 4.9
7.3
4.6
Corners conceded · league 4.9
4.5
1.9
Cards · league 2.0
1.6
1.8
Opponents' cards · league 2.0
1.6
43%
Goals before half-time · league 45%
50%
29%
Goals after 75' · league 21%
10%
50%
Conceded before half-time · league 45%
58%
11%
Conceded after 75' · league 21%
17%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Sparta PrahaBaník OstravaBoth Teams to Score
Sparta PrahaBaník OstravaOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Sparta PrahaBaník OstravaOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Sparta PrahaBaník OstravaFirst Half Result
Sparta PrahaBaník OstravaCorrect Score
Sparta PrahaBaník Ostrava