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Penafiel vs Leca

Penafiel vs Leca 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Taça De Portugal - Season 2026/2027 3rd Round (Knock Out)

Penafiel vs Leca stats: how the match was played

Taça De Portugal

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Penafiel

Leca

Shots on target

Corners

Yellow cards

The match between Penafiel and Leca ended 0-1. Our AI model correctly predicted an Leca win with 41% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Penafiel vs Leca — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Taça De Portugal

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Leca to win

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Penafiel to win.

Our model 41%Bookmakers 20%

Our track record

In 1,069 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 53%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,519 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 52%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 5,201 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 69%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 3,987 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Penafiel ahead at half-time.

Our model 45%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 550 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.8% than to our 45–50%.

Penafiel Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Penafiel 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Penafiel 2+ goals.

Our model 65%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 389 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.9% than to our 60–65%.

Leca Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Leca 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 59%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 1,591 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 60.9%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Penafiel vs Leca 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Penafiel vs Leca. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Taça De Portugal - Portugal

Penafiel0

Leca1

Winner

X2 66%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 59%

· FT

Taça De Portugal - Portugal

Penafiel0

Leca1

Winner

X2 66%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 59%

Full Time

134%

X25%

241%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	25%	75%	48%	52%	59%	41%	82%	18%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	25%	75%	48%	52%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	59%	41%	82%	18%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	32%	68%	65%	35%	85%	15%	95%	5%
	27%	73%	59%	41%	82%	18%	93%	7%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	32%	68%	65%	35%
	27%	73%	59%	41%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	85%	15%	95%	5%
	82%	18%	93%	7%

1st Half

127%

X45%

228%

1st Score

145%

X7%

248%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

24%

1-1

19%

X-X

16%

X-2

16%

X-1

12%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

11.3%

0-1

9.4%

1-2

8.7%

1-0

8.3%

2-1

7.0%

0-0

6.8%

0-2

6.6%

2-2

5.5%

2-0

5.1%

1-3

4.1%

3-1

3.4%

0-3

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Penafiel vs Leca — Recent Form

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Penafiel

1/2

Leca

2/2

Both Teams to Score

Penafiel

1/2

Leca

0/2

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Penafiel

1/2

Leca

1/2

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Penafiel

2/2

Leca

2/2

First Half Result

Penafiel

0/2

Leca

0/2

Correct Score

Penafiel

0/2

Leca

0/2

correct predictionwrong prediction