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FC Volendam vs De Graafschap Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Eerste Divisie - Season 2026/2027 (Round 13)
FC Volendam are taking more points than their chances usually bring
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games.
FC Volendam vs De Graafschap score prediction
Eerste Divisie
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Goal-fest alert3.9 goals expected
3.9 goals in total: more goals than a typical Eerste Divisie game (average 3.3).
goals expected
FC Volendam2.2
De Graafschap1.7Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →FC Volendam vs De Graafschap — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Eerste Divisie
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
FC Volendam to win
Our track record
In 3,602 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our track record
In 408 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.3% of the time (bookmakers said 65.4%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our track record
In 290 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.4% of the time (bookmakers said 71.3%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our track record
In 181 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 47.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.5% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our track record
In 1,214 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.9% of the time (bookmakers said 35.1%).
Our model’s pick
FC Volendam 2+ goals
Our track record
In 2,801 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.7%).
Our model’s pick
De Graafschap 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 1,010 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.3%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
FC Volendam vs De Graafschap — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for FC Volendam vs De Graafschap. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
FC Volendam–
De Graafschap–Winner
1X 65%
BTTS*
Yes 69%
Correct Score
1-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 71%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 58%
FC Volendam–De Graafschap–Winner
1X 65%
BTTS*
Yes 69%
Correct Score
1-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 71%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 58%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 12% | 88% | 29% | 71% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 42% | 58% | 69% | 31% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21% | 79% | 47% | 53% |
| 28% | 72% | 55% | 45% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72% | 28% | 87% | 13% |
| 79% | 21% | 91% | 9% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
27%
2-2
19%
X-1
14%
X-X
12%
X-2
10%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
4%
2-1
4%
Correct Score
1-1
8.8%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
8.4%
2-2
7.5%
3-1
5.2%
1-0
5.0%
2-0
4.6%
0-1
4.4%
3-2
4.3%
1-3
4.0%
0-2
3.8%
2-3
3.7%
3-0
3.4%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
FC Volendam vs De Graafschap: attack vs defence
Eerste Divisie
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Eerste Divisie teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- FC Volendam: weak attack, weak defence (1.57 xG, 2.04 xGA a game)
- De Graafschap: weak attack, weak defence (1.32 xG, 2.01 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →FC Volendam vs De Graafschap form and luck check
Eerste Divisie
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Eerste Divisie gamesFC Volendam are taking more points than their chances usually bring
- FC VolendamBookmakers: 48% to win today.Clinical · +7 goals+4.1
- De GraafschapBookmakers: 30% to win today.+1.2
Last 5 matches
FC VolendamDe GraafschapStrength rank: FC Volendam 6th of 20 · De Graafschap 10th of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →FC Volendam vs De Graafschap: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Eerste Divisie
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Eerste Divisie gamesBTTS = both teams scoredFC Volendam games go over 2.5 goals less often than the Eerste Divisie average (65%), De Graafschap games more often.
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 381 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →FC Volendam vs De Graafschap corners, cards and goal times
Eerste Divisie
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameDe Graafschap score early
FC Volendam
De Graafschap
3.6
Corners won · league 5.3
4.8
7.6
Corners conceded · league 5.3
6.8
1.9
Cards · league 1.7
2.0
1.3
Opponents' cards · league 1.7
1.9
46%
Goals before half-time · league 44%
58%
21%
Goals after 75' · league 25%
8%
41%
Conceded before half-time · league 44%
55%
18%
Conceded after 75' · league 25%
30%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
De GraafschapFC VolendamBoth Teams to Score
De GraafschapFC VolendamOver/Under 2.5 Goals
De GraafschapFC VolendamOver/Under 3.5 Goals
De GraafschapFC VolendamFirst Half Result
De GraafschapFC VolendamCorrect Score
De GraafschapFC Volendam