Brick wall
5/10Almere City kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 20%).
Eerste Divisie Predictions & Stats
Free AI predictions for every upcoming Eerste Divisie match — 1X2, Both Teams to Score, Over/Under goals and Correct Score probabilities.
Predictions updated on 24 October 2026.
Eerste Divisie Predictions by Market
Season 2026/2027 · Round 11 · Regular Season
Full-Time Result
50%
SUCCESS RATE AVG.
Both Teams To Score
67%
SUCCESS RATE AVG.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
66%
SUCCESS RATE AVG.
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
56%
SUCCESS RATE AVG.
First Half Result
38%
SUCCESS RATE AVG.
Correct Score
11%
SUCCESS RATE AVG.
Eerste Divisie 2026/2027 prediction accuracy over the last 100 matches: 1X2 50%, BTTS 67%, Over/Under 2.5 66%, Over/Under 3.5 56%, correct score 11%.
Eerste Divisie stats: goals, BTTS, corners and cards vs other leagues
How this competition ranks among the leagues and cups we cover for goals, chances (xG), corners and cards.
How to read it
last 12 months · 381 matchesrank 1 = highest of 63 competitionsGoals galoreAway days payCorner-heavy
Goals a match
3.3
4th of 63
xG a match
3.11
4th of 62
Corners a match
10.57
3rd of 62
Cards a match
3.39
60th of 63
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We use the league's matches from the last 12 months, without qualifying rounds, and rank it against the 63 leagues and club competitions with 50 or more matches in that time (1 = highest). A label marks a league in the top fifth on goals, home or away wins, draws, cards or corners, or in the bottom fifth on goals. xG is our estimate of each match's chances from its shots.
Eerste Divisie: the stats that stand out
The Eerste Divisie teams most unusual in their last 10 games.
How to read it
the teamleague averageeach team's last 10 games5/10Low-scoring
3/10Roda JC Kerkrade games went over 2.5 goals in only 3 of their last 10 (league 65%).
Fast starters
8/10Heracles Almelo scored first in 8 of 10 recent matches with goal times (league 48%).
Goals at both ends
9/10Jong AZ: both teams scored in 9 of their last 10 (league 64%).
Shot-shy
4/10Vitesse failed to score in 4 of their last 10 (league 20%).
Always chasing
7/10De Graafschap conceded first in 7 of 10 recent matches with goal times (league 48%).
Flop as favourites
2/7RKC Waalwijk won only 2 of 7 as favourites (league 51%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each stat we show the club that stands out most, one club per stat. A fact needs at least 6 games and a result far enough from the league average to be unusual (at least one standard deviation).
How we measure →Today's Betting Tips for Eerste Divisie Netherlands
Free predictions for today's Eerste Divisie matches: 1X2, both teams to score, over/under and correct score.
· FT
Helmond Sport0
NAC Breda2Winner
2 58%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
1-2 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 51%
Helmond Sport0NAC Breda2Winner
2 58%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
1-2 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 51%
Full Time
120%
X22%
258%
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 41% | 59% | 73% | 27% |
 | 15% | 85% | 41% | 59% |
Goals Over/Under
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 40% | 60% | 51% | 49% |
Correct Score
1-2
10.4%
1-1
10.0%
0-1
8.9%
0-2
8.8%
1-3
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
· FT
FC Eindhoven0
Vitesse1Winner
12 76%
BTTS*
Yes 63%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 51%
FC Eindhoven0Vitesse1Winner
12 76%
BTTS*
Yes 63%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 51%
· FT
VVV-Venlo4
Jong AZ4Winner
1X 72%
BTTS*
Yes 70%
Correct Score
1-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 72%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 62%
VVV-Venlo4Jong AZ4Winner
1X 72%
BTTS*
Yes 70%
Correct Score
1-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 72%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 62%
· FT
FC Den Bosch2
TOP Oss1Winner
1 64%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 65%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
FC Den Bosch2TOP Oss1Winner
1 64%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 65%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
· FT
FC Emmen2
Almere City1Winner
1X 65%
BTTS*
Yes 68%
Correct Score
1-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 69%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 59%
FC Emmen2Almere City1Winner
1X 65%
BTTS*
Yes 68%
Correct Score
1-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 69%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 59%
· FT
RKC Waalwijk1
FC Volendam1Winner
1 57%
BTTS*
Yes 63%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 65%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 53%
RKC Waalwijk1FC Volendam1Winner
1 57%
BTTS*
Yes 63%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 65%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 53%
· FT
MVV Maastricht1
Heracles Almelo5Winner
X2 71%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 51%
MVV Maastricht1Heracles Almelo5Winner
X2 71%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 51%
· FT
Jong Ajax2
De Graafschap1Winner
X2 71%
BTTS*
Yes 67%
Correct Score
1-2 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 69%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 57%
Jong Ajax2De Graafschap1Winner
X2 71%
BTTS*
Yes 67%
Correct Score
1-2 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 69%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 57%
· FT
Jong PSV0
FC Dordrecht1Winner
1X 68%
BTTS*
Yes 66%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 66%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
Jong PSV0FC Dordrecht1Winner
1X 68%
BTTS*
Yes 66%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 66%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
· FT
Jong FC Utrecht1
Roda JC Kerkrade2Winner
X2 67%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
Jong FC Utrecht1Roda JC Kerkrade2Winner
X2 67%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
· FT
Vitesse0FC Emmen2Winner
1X 65%
BTTS*
Yes 63%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 50%
Vitesse0FC Emmen2Winner
1X 65%
BTTS*
Yes 63%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 50%
· FT
Jong AZ5Helmond Sport4Winner
1 54%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 64%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 51%
Jong AZ5Helmond Sport4Winner
1 54%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 64%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 51%
· FT
FC Volendam6Jong FC Utrecht2Winner
1 51%
BTTS*
Yes 65%
Correct Score
1-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 68%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 56%
FC Volendam6Jong FC Utrecht2Winner
1 51%
BTTS*
Yes 65%
Correct Score
1-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 68%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 56%
· FT
TOP Oss3Jong Ajax3Winner
1X 72%
BTTS*
Yes 64%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 66%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
TOP Oss3Jong Ajax3Winner
1X 72%
BTTS*
Yes 64%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 66%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
· FT
NAC Breda1Heracles Almelo1Winner
1X 72%
BTTS*
Yes 65%
Correct Score
2-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 66%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 54%
NAC Breda1Heracles Almelo1Winner
1X 72%
BTTS*
Yes 65%
Correct Score
2-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 66%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 54%
· FT
De Graafschap1RKC Waalwijk1Winner
12 76%
BTTS*
Yes 66%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 65%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 53%
De Graafschap1RKC Waalwijk1Winner
12 76%
BTTS*
Yes 66%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 65%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 53%
· FT
Almere City2Roda JC Kerkrade3Winner
1 52%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 52%
Almere City2Roda JC Kerkrade3Winner
1 52%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 52%
· FT
FC Eindhoven1Jong PSV2Winner
1X 63%
BTTS*
Yes 66%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 66%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 53%
FC Eindhoven1Jong PSV2Winner
1X 63%
BTTS*
Yes 66%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 66%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 53%
· FT
FC Den Bosch2MVV Maastricht2Winner
1 66%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 66%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 54%
FC Den Bosch2MVV Maastricht2Winner
1 66%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 66%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 54%
FC Dordrecht–VVV-Venlo–Winner
1X 62%
BTTS*
Yes 65%
Correct Score
1-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 66%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 54%
FC Dordrecht–VVV-Venlo–Winner
1X 62%
BTTS*
Yes 65%
Correct Score
1-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 66%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 54%
Helmond Sport–FC Eindhoven–Winner
1X 66%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 54%
Helmond Sport–FC Eindhoven–Winner
1X 66%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 54%
FC Volendam–De Graafschap–Winner
1X 65%
BTTS*
Yes 71%
Correct Score
2-1 08%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 74%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 61%
FC Volendam–De Graafschap–Winner
1X 65%
BTTS*
Yes 71%
Correct Score
2-1 08%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 74%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 61%
Roda JC Kerkrade–Jong AZ–Winner
1 51%
BTTS*
Yes 65%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 66%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
Roda JC Kerkrade–Jong AZ–Winner
1 51%
BTTS*
Yes 65%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 66%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 52%
RKC Waalwijk–Almere City–Winner
1X 73%
BTTS*
Yes 67%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 68%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 55%
RKC Waalwijk–Almere City–Winner
1X 73%
BTTS*
Yes 67%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 68%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 55%
MVV Maastricht–VVV-Venlo–Winner
X2 72%
BTTS*
Yes 62%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 51%
MVV Maastricht–VVV-Venlo–Winner
X2 72%
BTTS*
Yes 62%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 51%
FC Emmen–FC Den Bosch–Winner
1 61%
BTTS*
Yes 64%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 69%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 57%
FC Emmen–FC Den Bosch–Winner
1 61%
BTTS*
Yes 64%
Correct Score
2-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 69%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 57%
Jong Ajax–Vitesse–Winner
X2 70%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 50%
Jong Ajax–Vitesse–Winner
X2 70%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 50%
Heracles Almelo–TOP Oss–Winner
1 73%
BTTS*
Yes 58%
Correct Score
2-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 71%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 59%
Heracles Almelo–TOP Oss–Winner
1 73%
BTTS*
Yes 58%
Correct Score
2-1 09%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 71%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 59%
Jong PSV–NAC Breda–Winner
2 52%
BTTS*
Yes 64%
Correct Score
1-2 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 65%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 53%
Jong PSV–NAC Breda–Winner
2 52%
BTTS*
Yes 64%
Correct Score
1-2 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 65%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 53%
Jong FC Utrecht–FC Dordrecht–Winner
X2 69%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 54%
Jong FC Utrecht–FC Dordrecht–Winner
X2 69%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 54%
TOP Oss–RKC Waalwijk–Winner
X2 65%
BTTS*
Yes 63%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 50%
TOP Oss–RKC Waalwijk–Winner
X2 65%
BTTS*
Yes 63%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 50%
Jong AZ–Almere City–Winner
1X 69%
BTTS*
Yes 70%
Correct Score
1-1 08%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 72%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 63%
Jong AZ–Almere City–Winner
1X 69%
BTTS*
Yes 70%
Correct Score
1-1 08%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 72%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 63%
VVV-Venlo–Jong PSV–Winner
1X 69%
BTTS*
Yes 70%
Correct Score
2-1 08%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 72%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 61%
VVV-Venlo–Jong PSV–Winner
1X 69%
BTTS*
Yes 70%
Correct Score
2-1 08%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 72%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 61%
FC Eindhoven–Jong Ajax–Winner
1X 70%
BTTS*
Yes 63%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 62%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 51%
FC Eindhoven–Jong Ajax–Winner
1X 70%
BTTS*
Yes 63%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 62%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 51%
FC Dordrecht–NAC Breda–Winner
2 51%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-2 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 51%
FC Dordrecht–NAC Breda–Winner
2 51%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-2 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 63%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 51%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Eerste Divisie xG: chances created and allowed
Every Eerste Divisie team's chances created and allowed a game, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
each logo is a team · tap one for detailseach logo is a team · hover one for detailsEerste Divisie average · 1.58 xG, 1.59 xGAlast 10 games eachTap a logo to see the team's numbers
↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
Teams by box· 20
Good attack, good defence
Good attack, weak defence
Weak attack, good defence
Weak attack, weak defence
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Eerste Divisie Results vs the Odds
Season 2026/2027 and the last 30 days
How often each result has happened in Eerste Divisie this season (thick bar) and in the last 30 days (thin bar), next to what the bookmakers’ closing odds expected. The last 30 days cover fewer matches, so their normal range is wider and big swings there are still normal. This is not our prediction accuracy.
How to read it
what the closing odds expectednormal range: chance alone lands here 19 times in 20gap to the odds, in percentage pointsgap outside the normal rangethick bar: Season · thin bar: 30 days
Result · happened
◀ fewer −20◀ fewer than expected · −20 pts odds expected+20 more ▶+20 pts · more than expected ▶
Verdict
Home wins
119 matches
51.3%
Season (119) · 51.3% vs 44.5%
Season
+6.8
±8.6
30 days (45) · 48.9% vs 45.4%
30 days
+3.5
±14.0
Draws
119 matches
20.2%
Season (119) · 20.2% vs 22.9%
Season
−2.7
±7.5
30 days (45) · 26.7% vs 22.6%
30 days
+4.1
±12.2
Away wins
119 matches
28.6%
Season (119) · 28.6% vs 32.6%
Season
−4.1
±8.1
30 days (45) · 24.4% vs 32.1%
30 days
−7.6
±13.1
Over 2.5 goals
119 matches
66.4%
Season (119) · 66.4% vs 66.6%
Season
−0.2
±8.4
30 days (45) · 55.6% vs 67.4%
30 days
−11.8
±13.6
Both teams scored
119 matches
68.9%
Season (119) · 68.9% vs 65.8%
Season
+3.1
±8.5
30 days (45) · 60.0% vs 65.9%
30 days
−5.9
±13.8
Show more markets (6)Show fewer markets
Over 3.5 goals
119 matches
44.5%
Season (119) · 44.5% vs 45.7%
Season
−1.1
±8.9
30 days (45) · 33.3% vs 46.5%
30 days
−13.2
±14.5
Home side ahead at half-time
119 matches
42.0%
Season (119) · 42.0% vs 35.7%
Season
+6.4
±8.4
30 days (45) · 44.4% vs 36.1%
30 days
+8.3
±13.7
Level at half-time
119 matches
36.1%
Season (119) · 36.1% vs 36.0%
Season
+0.1
±8.6
30 days (45) · 26.7% vs 35.7%
30 days
−9.1
±14.0
Away side ahead at half-time
119 matches
21.8%
Season (119) · 21.8% vs 28.3%
Season
−6.5
±8.0
30 days (45) · 28.9% vs 28.1%
30 days
+0.8
±12.9
Home team scored 2+
119 matches
57.1%
Season (119) · 57.1% vs 54.5%
Season
+2.7
±8.7
30 days (45) · 55.6% vs 55.3%
30 days
+0.2
±14.2
Away team scored 2+
119 matches
42.9%
Season (119) · 42.9% vs 45.8%
Season
−2.9
±8.7
30 days (45) · 42.2% vs 46.2%
30 days
−4.0
±14.2
Shows what happened, not what comes next. Closing odds from one bookmaker per match, bookmaker margin removed. Updated daily.
Show as a tableHide the table
| Result | Period | Matches | Happened | Odds expected | Gap (pts) | Normal range (± pts) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home wins | Season | 119 | 51.3% | 44.5% | +6.8 | ±8.6 | Normal range |
| Home wins | 30 days | 45 | 48.9% | 45.4% | +3.5 | ±14.0 | Normal range |
| Draws | Season | 119 | 20.2% | 22.9% | −2.7 | ±7.5 | Normal range |
| Draws | 30 days | 45 | 26.7% | 22.6% | +4.1 | ±12.2 | Normal range |
| Away wins | Season | 119 | 28.6% | 32.6% | −4.1 | ±8.1 | Normal range |
| Away wins | 30 days | 45 | 24.4% | 32.1% | −7.6 | ±13.1 | Normal range |
| Over 2.5 goals | Season | 119 | 66.4% | 66.6% | −0.2 | ±8.4 | Normal range |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30 days | 45 | 55.6% | 67.4% | −11.8 | ±13.6 | Normal range |
| Both teams scored | Season | 119 | 68.9% | 65.8% | +3.1 | ±8.5 | Normal range |
| Both teams scored | 30 days | 45 | 60.0% | 65.9% | −5.9 | ±13.8 | Normal range |
| Over 3.5 goals | Season | 119 | 44.5% | 45.7% | −1.1 | ±8.9 | Normal range |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30 days | 45 | 33.3% | 46.5% | −13.2 | ±14.5 | Normal range |
| Home side ahead at half-time | Season | 119 | 42.0% | 35.7% | +6.4 | ±8.4 | Normal range |
| Home side ahead at half-time | 30 days | 45 | 44.4% | 36.1% | +8.3 | ±13.7 | Normal range |
| Level at half-time | Season | 119 | 36.1% | 36.0% | +0.1 | ±8.6 | Normal range |
| Level at half-time | 30 days | 45 | 26.7% | 35.7% | −9.1 | ±14.0 | Normal range |
| Away side ahead at half-time | Season | 119 | 21.8% | 28.3% | −6.5 | ±8.0 | Normal range |
| Away side ahead at half-time | 30 days | 45 | 28.9% | 28.1% | +0.8 | ±12.9 | Normal range |
| Home team scored 2+ | Season | 119 | 57.1% | 54.5% | +2.7 | ±8.7 | Normal range |
| Home team scored 2+ | 30 days | 45 | 55.6% | 55.3% | +0.2 | ±14.2 | Normal range |
| Away team scored 2+ | Season | 119 | 42.9% | 45.8% | −2.9 | ±8.7 | Normal range |
| Away team scored 2+ | 30 days | 45 | 42.2% | 46.2% | −4.0 | ±14.2 | Normal range |
Eerste Divisie luck check: the last 10 games
Eerste Divisie teams taking more or fewer points than their chances usually bring, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringnormal range (±4)outside it+6.8 = 7 points more than their chances usually bringRiding their luck4
VVV-VenloClinical · +7 goals+6.8- Almere City+5.0
MVV Maastricht+4.8- Roda JC Kerkrade+4.6
Unlucky2
- NAC BredaWasteful · −3 goals−5.4
FC Dordrecht−4.8
Points in line, but wasteful: Jong PSV (−3 goals). Clinical: FC Volendam (+5), Jong AZ (+5), FC Eindhoven (+4), Helmond Sport (+3).
In line with their chances: TOP Oss, Vitesse, De Graafschap, FC Emmen, Jong Ajax, FC Den Bosch, Heracles Almelo, RKC Waalwijk and Jong FC Utrecht.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
How we measure →Eerste Divisie last week: smash-and-grab wins and upsets
Smash-and-grab wins (the side with clearly fewer chances won) and upsets (results the closing odds gave under 20%) from the last 7 days.
How to read it
Oct 17–Oct 24 · 15 matches · odds: closing, margin removedCalculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Smash-and-grab: the winner had at least 0.8 less xG than the loser (our xG, from shots). Upset: the result the closing odds gave under 20%, with the bookmaker margin removed. Across our leagues about 6% of matches are smash-and-grab wins and about 5% are upsets.
How we measure →Eerste Divisie Standings
Check the current league table, team positions, points, and form. Click to view complete standings with detailed statistics.
#TEAM | MP | PTS | W | D | L | G | GD | FORM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1  Heracles Almelo | 12 | 29 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 37:14 | +23 | D W W D W |
2  FC Emmen | 12 | 25 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 26:19 | +7 | W W W D W |
3  Almere City | 12 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 25:12 | +13 | L L W W L |
4  VVV-Venlo | 11 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 30:18 | +12 | D W W L W |
5  Roda JC Kerkrade | 12 | 22 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 15:11 | +4 | W W D L W |
Promotion
Promotion Play-off
Possible Promotion Play-off
MP=Matches Played
PTS=Points
W=Wins
D=Draws
L=Losses
G=Goals (For:Against)
GD=Goal Difference
FORM=Last 5 Matches
The league profile compares Eerste Divisie with the 63 leagues and cups we rank over the last 12 months (rank 1 = highest). The stats that stand out pick the most unusual numbers from each team's last 10 games. The attack vs defence chart puts each team in one of four boxes: top right creates more and allows fewer chances than the league average. The luck check shows who got more or fewer points than their chances in the last 10 games, and Last week lists wins with fewer chances and results the bookmakers gave under 20%.
These statistics represent prediction accuracy based on the last 100 matches in the league. Accuracy reflects how often the model correctly predicted the outcome for each market. Our football predictions are generated using advanced AI techniques combined with historical match data, team form, player availability and head-to-head records to deliver reliable forecasts. Explore our prediction results tracker for live accuracy across all completed matches, our league accuracy data for competition-level breakdowns, or prediction performance for team-level insights.
About Eerste Divisie
The Eerste Divisie, known for sponsorship reasons as the Keuken Kampioen Divisie, is the second tier of professional football in the Netherlands. It has 20 clubs, including reserve teams such as Jong Ajax and Jong PSV, which can play in the league but cannot be promoted. The top two clubs go straight up to the Eredivisie, while period winners and other high finishers get another chance in the promotion play-offs. Many Dutch talents play their first senior matches in the Eerste Divisie.