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Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva 4-0 Score & Prediction Review

Europa League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 3)

Fair result

Union Saint-Gilloise

4–0

Hapoel Be'er Sheva

3.6Chances (xG)0.8

On these chances Union Saint-Gilloise would usually take 2.7 points and Hapoel Be'er Sheva 0.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Union Saint-Gilloise.

Union Saint-Gilloise +0.3 pts vs chancesHapoel Be'er Sheva −0.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva stats: how the match was played

Europa League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Union Saint-Gilloise had more than twice the shots on target

Union Saint-Gilloise

Hapoel Be'er Sheva

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

50%

Possession

50%

The match between Union Saint-Gilloise and Hapoel Be'er Sheva ended 4-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Union Saint-Gilloise win with 51% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Europa League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Union Saint-Gilloise to win

Correct

Our model 51%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 2,469 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.8% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 52%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,453 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,147 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 70%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 4,552 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Union Saint-Gilloise ahead at half-time.

Our model 44%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 2,224 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 37.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Union Saint-Gilloise Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Union Saint-Gilloise 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Union Saint-Gilloise 2+ goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 33%

Our track record

In 1,849 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Hapoel Be'er Sheva Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Hapoel Be'er Sheva 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 73%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 3,349 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.8% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva 4-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Europa League - Europe

Union Saint-Gilloise4

Hapoel Be'er Sheva0

Winner

1 51%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

· FT

Europa League - Europe

Union Saint-Gilloise4

Hapoel Be'er Sheva0

Winner

1 51%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

Full Time

151%

X24%

225%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	24%	76%	48%	52%	60%	40%	82%	18%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	24%	76%	48%	52%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	60%	40%	82%	18%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	22%	78%	52%	48%	77%	23%	91%	9%
	41%	59%	73%	27%	90%	10%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	22%	78%	52%	48%
	41%	59%	73%	27%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	77%	23%	91%	9%
	90%	10%	97%	3%

1st Half

134%

X44%

222%

1st Score

157%

X7%

236%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

28%

X-1

24%

2-2

14%

X-X

12%

X-2

10%

2-X

1-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

11.3%

1-0

10.9%

2-1

9.5%

2-0

8.5%

0-1

6.8%

0-0

6.7%

1-2

6.0%

3-0

5.2%

3-1

4.8%

2-2

4.7%

0-2

3.7%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Union Saint-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva — Recent Form

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Union Saint-Gilloise

0/2

Hapoel Be'er Sheva

1/2

Both Teams to Score

Union Saint-Gilloise

1/2

Hapoel Be'er Sheva

0/2

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Union Saint-Gilloise

1/2

Hapoel Be'er Sheva

1/2

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Union Saint-Gilloise

2/2

Hapoel Be'er Sheva

2/2

First Half Result

Union Saint-Gilloise

0/2

Hapoel Be'er Sheva

1/2

Correct Score

Union Saint-Gilloise

1/2

Hapoel Be'er Sheva

0/2

correct predictionwrong prediction