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Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Europa League - Season 2026/2027 League Stage (Group Stage) (Round 3)
Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Europa League
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Real Sociedad to win
Our track record
In 3,626 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our track record
In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our track record
In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our track record
In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our track record
In 1,233 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.1% than to our 35–40%.
Our model’s pick
Lillestrøm 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Our model’s pick
Real Sociedad 0–1 goals
Our track record
In 632 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.7% than to our 55–60%.
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Lillestrøm–
Real Sociedad–Winner
X2 65%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Lillestrøm–Real Sociedad–Winner
X2 65%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 19% | 81% | 40% | 60% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 53% | 47% | 78% | 22% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 29% | 71% | 59% | 41% |
 | 26% | 74% | 56% | 44% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82% | 18% | 93% | 7% |
| 80% | 20% | 93% | 7% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
26%
2-2
19%
X-1
15%
X-X
13%
X-2
12%
2-X
6%
1-X
4%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
10.8%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.8%
0-1
7.4%
1-0
6.6%
2-2
6.5%
0-2
5.7%
0-0
5.1%
2-0
4.7%
1-3
4.5%
3-1
3.8%
0-3
3.4%
2-3
3.4%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Real SociedadLillestrømBoth Teams to Score
Real SociedadLillestrømOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Real SociedadLillestrømOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Real SociedadLillestrømFirst Half Result
Real SociedadLillestrømCorrect Score
Real SociedadLillestrøm