Always chasing
7/10Lokomotiva Zagreb conceded first in 7 of their last 10 (league 46%).
Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
1. HNL - Season 2026/2027 (Round 11)
Wasteful
Gorica are scoring fewer goals than their chances (xG) usually bring
−4goals fewer than their chances (xG) in their last 10
77% of teams scoring this many fewer goals than their chances scored more in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Gorica 40% to winLokomotiva Zagreb 33%
Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb score prediction
1. HNL
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.5 goals in total: fewer goals than usual (the 1. HNL average is 2.8).
goals expected
Gorica1.4Lokomotiva Zagreb1.1Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · 1. HNL
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Lokomotiva Zagreb to win
Our model 41%Bookmakers 33%
Our track record
In 1,064 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.3% than to our 40–45%.
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 53%Bookmakers 58%
Our track record
In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 51%Bookmakers 48%
Our track record
In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 73%Bookmakers 70%
Our track record
In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 46%Bookmakers 43%
Our track record
In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).
Gorica Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Gorica 0–1 goals
Our model 68%Bookmakers 57%
Our track record
In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Lokomotiva Zagreb Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Lokomotiva Zagreb 0–1 goals
Our model 60%Bookmakers 62%
Our track record
In 2,695 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Gorica–
Lokomotiva Zagreb–Winner
X2 68%
BTTS*
Yes 53%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Gorica–Lokomotiva Zagreb–Winner
X2 68%
BTTS*
Yes 53%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Full Time
132%
X26%
241%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 27% | 73% | 51% | 49% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 63% | 37% | 86% | 14% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33% | 67% | 68% | 32% |
| 28% | 72% | 60% | 40% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 12% | 97% | 3% |
| 84% | 16% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
125%
X45%
230%
1st Score
144%
X8%
249%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
23%
1-1
17%
X-X
17%
X-2
16%
X-1
11%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.2%
0-1
10.1%
1-0
9.2%
1-2
8.9%
0-0
7.8%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
6.9%
2-2
5.4%
2-0
5.0%
1-3
3.9%
0-3
3.6%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb: the stats that stand out
1. HNL
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Lokomotiva Zagreb: always chasing and leaky
7/10Leaky
1/10Lokomotiva Zagreb kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 10 (league 28%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb: attack vs defence
1. HNL
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other 1. HNL teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Gorica: weak attack, weak defence (1.14 xG, 1.76 xGA a game)
- Lokomotiva Zagreb: weak attack, weak defence (1.04 xG, 1.84 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb form and luck check
1. HNL
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 1. HNL gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- GoricaBookmakers: 40% to win today.Wasteful · −4 goals−2.7
- Lokomotiva ZagrebBookmakers: 33% to win today.+1.7
Last 5 matches
GoricaD
L
W
D
L
Lokomotiva ZagrebW
L
L
D
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Gorica 9th of 10 · Lokomotiva Zagreb 7th of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 10 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
1. HNL
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 1. HNL gamesBTTS = both teams scoredGorica and Lokomotiva Zagreb games both go over 2.5 goals less often than the 1. HNL average (52%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 52%
Gorica4 of 10
Lokomotiva Zagreb5 of 10
BTTSleague 53%
Gorica5 of 10
Lokomotiva Zagreb6 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 181 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb corners, cards and goal times
1. HNL
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameGorica score late
Gorica
Lokomotiva Zagreb
3.5
Corners won · league 4.7
4.5
6.0
Corners conceded · league 4.7
6.7
1.4
Cards · league 2.1
3.2
2.5
Opponents' cards · league 2.1
1.9
14%
Goals before half-time · league 48%
54%
57%
Goals after 75' · league 19%
23%
60%
Conceded before half-time · league 48%
35%
20%
Conceded after 75' · league 19%
6%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Lokomotiva Zagreb3/5
Gorica1/5
Both Teams to Score
Lokomotiva Zagreb2/5
Gorica3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Lokomotiva Zagreb3/5
Gorica1/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Lokomotiva Zagreb4/5
Gorica4/5
First Half Result
Lokomotiva Zagreb3/5
Gorica3/5
Correct Score
Lokomotiva Zagreb1/5
Gorica1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction