Shot-shy
5/10Valencia failed to score in 5 of their last 10 (league 24%).
Valencia vs Villarreal Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
La Liga - Season 2026/2027 (Round 10)
Unlucky
Villarreal are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−8points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Villarreal 45% to winValencia 29%
Valencia vs Villarreal score prediction
La Liga
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.8 goals in total, in line with the La Liga average of 2.8.
goals expected
Valencia1.4
Villarreal1.4Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Valencia vs Villarreal: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Valencia vs Villarreal — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · La Liga
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Villarreal to win
Our model 40%Bookmakers 45%
Our track record
In 2,098 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 56%Bookmakers 60%
Our track record
In 5,690 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 52%Bookmakers 55%
Our track record
In 5,147 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 71%Bookmakers 67%
Our track record
In 4,552 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 45%Bookmakers 41%
Our track record
In 4,234 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).
Valencia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Valencia 0–1 goals
Our model 65%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 3,454 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).
Villarreal Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Villarreal 0–1 goals
Our model 60%Bookmakers 52%
Our track record
In 1,589 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.8% of the time (bookmakers said 60.9%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Valencia vs Villarreal — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Valencia vs Villarreal. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Valencia–
Villarreal–Winner
X2 66%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 61%
Valencia–Villarreal–Winner
X2 66%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 61%
Full Time
134%
X26%
240%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 25% | 75% | 48% | 52% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 61% | 39% | 84% | 16% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31% | 69% | 65% | 35% |
| 27% | 73% | 60% | 40% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
| 83% | 17% | 94% | 6% |
1st Half
129%
X45%
226%
1st Score
148%
X7%
245%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
20%
2-2
19%
X-X
17%
X-2
15%
X-1
13%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.3%
0-1
9.1%
1-2
9.0%
1-0
8.5%
2-1
8.3%
0-0
6.9%
0-2
6.2%
2-2
5.9%
2-0
5.0%
1-3
4.0%
0-3
3.3%
3-1
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Valencia vs Villarreal: the stats that stand out
La Liga
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Valencia: shot-shy and slow starters · Villarreal: flop as favourites
5/10Slow starters
2/10Valencia scored first in only 2 of their last 10 (league 47%).
Flop as favourites
3/8Villarreal won only 3 of 8 as favourites (league 56%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Valencia vs Villarreal: attack vs defence
La Liga
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other La Liga teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Valencia: weak attack, weak defence (1.17 xG, 1.59 xGA a game)
- Villarreal: good attack, good defence (2.09 xG, 1.26 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Valencia vs Villarreal form and luck check
La Liga
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 La Liga gamesVillarreal are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
- ValenciaBookmakers: 29% to win today.−1.2
- VillarrealBookmakers: 45% to win today.Wasteful · −4 goals−7.7
Last 5 matches
VillarrealD
L
W
W
L
ValenciaD
D
L
W
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Valencia 13th of 20 · Villarreal 4th of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Valencia vs Villarreal: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
La Liga
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 La Liga gamesBTTS = both teams scoredVillarreal games go over 2.5 goals more often than the La Liga average (52%), Valencia games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 52%
Valencia5 of 10
Villarreal7 of 10
BTTSleague 57%
Valencia4 of 10
Villarreal7 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 379 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Valencia vs Villarreal corners, cards and goal times
La Liga
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameVillarreal score early
Valencia
Villarreal
4.3
Corners won · league 4.8
6.9
4.8
Corners conceded · league 4.8
4.9
2.2
Cards · league 2.4
1.7
2.2
Opponents' cards · league 2.4
2.8
22%
Goals before half-time · league 43%
61%
33%
Goals after 75' · league 25%
22%
38%
Conceded before half-time · league 43%
64%
31%
Conceded after 75' · league 25%
21%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Valencia1/5
Villarreal2/5
Both Teams to Score
Valencia2/5
Villarreal3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Valencia4/5
Villarreal3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Valencia3/5
Villarreal3/5
First Half Result
Valencia4/5
Villarreal1/5
Correct Score
Valencia0/5
Villarreal0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction