Leaky
0/10Cheltenham Town kept no clean sheet in their last 10 (league 28%).
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Cheltenham Town vs Newport County Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 13)
Riding their luck
Cheltenham Town are taking more points than their chances usually bring
+7points more than their chances usually bring in their last 10
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Cheltenham Town 36% to winNewport County 36%
Cheltenham Town vs Newport County score prediction
League Two
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.7 goals in total, a little over the League Two average of 2.6.
goals expected
Cheltenham Town1.4
Newport County1.3Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Cheltenham Town vs Newport County: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Cheltenham Town vs Newport County — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · League Two
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Cheltenham Town to win
Our model 38%Bookmakers 36%
Our track record
In 2,098 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 56%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 5,690 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 53%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 5,147 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 69%Bookmakers 72%
Our track record
In 3,952 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.5% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 45%Bookmakers 43%
Our track record
In 6,652 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Cheltenham Town Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Cheltenham Town 0–1 goals
Our model 61%Bookmakers 62%
Our track record
In 3,454 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).
Newport County Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Newport County 0–1 goals
Our model 63%Bookmakers 62%
Our track record
In 2,653 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.4% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Cheltenham Town vs Newport County — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Cheltenham Town vs Newport County. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Cheltenham Town–
Newport County–Winner
12 74%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Cheltenham Town–Newport County–Winner
12 74%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 53%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Full Time
138%
X26%
236%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 24% | 76% | 47% | 53% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 59% | 41% | 83% | 17% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28% | 72% | 60% | 40% |
| 30% | 70% | 63% | 37% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83% | 17% | 94% | 6% |
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
128%
X45%
227%
1st Score
151%
X7%
242%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
20%
1-1
18%
X-X
17%
X-2
16%
X-1
12%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
12.1%
1-0
8.7%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
8.2%
0-1
8.2%
0-0
6.7%
2-2
6.0%
2-0
5.9%
0-2
5.7%
3-1
3.8%
1-3
3.5%
3-0
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Cheltenham Town vs Newport County: the stats that stand out
League Two
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Cheltenham Town: leaky and always chasing
0/10Always chasing
7/10Cheltenham Town conceded first in 7 of their last 10 (league 46%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Cheltenham Town vs Newport County: attack vs defence
League Two
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other League Two teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Cheltenham Town: weak attack, weak defence (1.02 xG, 1.73 xGA a game)
- Newport County: weak attack, good defence (1.16 xG, 1.22 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Cheltenham Town vs Newport County form and luck check
League Two
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 League Two gamesCheltenham Town are taking more points than their chances usually bring
- Cheltenham TownBookmakers: 36% to win today.Clinical · +8 goals+6.7
- Newport CountyBookmakers: 36% to win today.−0.2
Last 5 matches
Newport CountyD
D
W
D
W
Cheltenham TownW
L
L
L
W
W
D
L
Strength rank: Cheltenham Town 24th of 24 · Newport County 22nd of 24
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 24 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Cheltenham Town vs Newport County: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
League Two
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 League Two gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Cheltenham Town and Newport County games more often than the League Two average (52%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 48%
Cheltenham Town7 of 10
Newport County4 of 10
BTTSleague 52%
Cheltenham Town8 of 10
Newport County6 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 540 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Cheltenham Town vs Newport County corners, cards and goal times
League Two
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameCheltenham Town score early
Cheltenham Town
Newport County
4.2
Corners won · league 4.9
4.0
6.5
Corners conceded · league 4.9
3.7
2.8
Cards · league 1.9
1.7
2.0
Opponents' cards · league 1.9
2.8
61%
Goals before half-time · league 44%
30%
17%
Goals after 75' · league 24%
20%
32%
Conceded before half-time · league 44%
30%
37%
Conceded after 75' · league 24%
40%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Newport County0/5
Cheltenham Town3/5
Both Teams to Score
Newport County1/5
Cheltenham Town3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Newport County2/5
Cheltenham Town3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Newport County4/5
Cheltenham Town3/5
First Half Result
Newport County4/5
Cheltenham Town1/5
Correct Score
Newport County1/5
Cheltenham Town0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction