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Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham

Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 11)

Fair result

Accrington Stanley

3–1

Gillingham

2.1Chances (xG)0.4

On these chances Accrington Stanley would usually take 2.5 points and Gillingham 0.3; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Accrington Stanley.

Accrington Stanley +0.5 pts vs chancesGillingham −0.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham stats: how the match was played

League Two

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Accrington Stanley had more than twice the shots on target

Accrington Stanley

Gillingham

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

53%

Possession

48%

The match between Accrington Stanley and Gillingham ended 3-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Accrington Stanley win with 43% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Both Teams To Score.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Shrewsbury Town – Gillingham prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · League Two

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Accrington Stanley to win

Correct

Our model 43%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 3,628 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,519 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 54%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 5,201 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 75%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 44%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 6,711 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.5% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Accrington Stanley Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Accrington Stanley 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 61%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,483 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.1% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Gillingham Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Gillingham 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 71%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,393 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

League Two - England

Accrington Stanley3

Gillingham1

Winner

1X 70%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

· FT

League Two - England

Accrington Stanley3

Gillingham1

Winner

1X 70%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

Full Time

143%

X27%

230%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	28%	72%	54%	46%	65%	35%	87%	13%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	28%	72%	54%	46%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	65%	35%	87%	13%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	26%	74%	61%	39%	84%	16%	95%	5%
	35%	65%	71%	29%	90%	10%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	26%	74%	61%	39%
	35%	65%	71%	29%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	84%	16%	95%	5%
	90%	10%	97%	3%

1st Half

134%

X44%

222%

1st Score

155%

X8%

237%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

28%

X-1

16%

X-X

16%

2-2

13%

X-2

10%

2-X

1-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

13.3%

1-0

11.3%

0-1

8.9%

2-1

8.7%

0-0

7.8%

2-0

7.5%

1-2

7.0%

0-2

5.0%

2-2

5.0%

3-1

4.2%

3-0

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Accrington Stanley vs Gillingham — Recent Form

Accrington Stanley have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 9th in the table. Gillingham have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 12th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Accrington Stanley

Gillingham

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Gillingham

2/5

Accrington Stanley

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Gillingham

1/5

Accrington Stanley

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Gillingham

2/5

Accrington Stanley

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Gillingham

2/5

Accrington Stanley

3/5

First Half Result

Gillingham

3/5

Accrington Stanley

2/5

Correct Score

Gillingham

1/5

Accrington Stanley

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Shrewsbury Town – Gillingham prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).