Flop as favourites
1/6Colchester United won only 1 of 6 as favourites (league 48%).
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Chesterfield vs Colchester United Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
League Two - Season 2026/2027 (Round 12)
Unlucky
Chesterfield are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−4points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Chesterfield 61% to winColchester United 17%
Chesterfield vs Colchester United score prediction
League Two
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Chesterfield expected to create clearly more
2.6 goals in total, a little over the League Two average of 2.5.
goals expected
Chesterfield1.5Colchester United1.1Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Chesterfield vs Colchester United: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Chesterfield vs Colchester United — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · League Two
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Chesterfield to win
Our model 49%Bookmakers 61%
Our track record
In 3,515 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.4% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 53%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 6,507 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 51%Bookmakers 60%
Our track record
In 5,197 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 71%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 4,594 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).
First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 41%Bookmakers 37%
Our track record
In 2,235 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.
Chesterfield Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Chesterfield 0–1 goals
Our model 54%Bookmakers 38%
Our track record
In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.
Colchester United Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Colchester United 0–1 goals
Our model 72%Bookmakers 74%
Our track record
In 3,383 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Chesterfield vs Colchester United — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Chesterfield vs Colchester United. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Chesterfield–
Colchester United–Winner
1X 74%
BTTS*
Yes 53%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 61%
Chesterfield–Colchester United–Winner
1X 74%
BTTS*
Yes 53%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 61%
Full Time
149%
X25%
226%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 25% | 75% | 49% | 51% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 61% | 39% | 83% | 17% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22% | 78% | 54% | 46% |
| 39% | 61% | 72% | 28% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79% | 21% | 92% | 8% |
| 90% | 10% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
138%
X41%
221%
1st Score
155%
X7%
238%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
31%
X-1
17%
X-X
14%
2-2
13%
X-2
9%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
4%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
11.8%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
8.1%
0-1
7.3%
0-0
7.0%
1-2
6.5%
2-2
5.2%
3-1
4.9%
3-0
4.4%
0-2
3.9%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Chesterfield vs Colchester United: the stats that stand out
League Two
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Colchester United: flop as favourites and hard to break · Chesterfield: always on the scoresheet
1/6Always on the scoresheet
1/10Chesterfield failed to score in only 1 of their last 10 (league 28%).
Hard to break
3/10Colchester United conceded first in only 3 of their last 10 (league 46%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Chesterfield vs Colchester United: attack vs defence
League Two
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other League Two teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Chesterfield: good attack, good defence (1.91 xG, 1.10 xGA a game)
- Colchester United: weak attack, weak defence (1.25 xG, 1.43 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Chesterfield vs Colchester United form and luck check
League Two
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 League Two gamesChesterfield are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
- ChesterfieldBookmakers: 61% to win today.−4.1
- Colchester UnitedBookmakers: 17% to win today.−2.1
Last 5 matches
ChesterfieldL
D
W
L
W
Colchester UnitedD
L
D
D
D
W
D
L
Strength rank: Chesterfield 5th of 24 · Colchester United 8th of 24
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 24 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Chesterfield vs Colchester United: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
League Two
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 League Two gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Chesterfield and Colchester United games more often than the League Two average (52%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 48%
Chesterfield6 of 10
Colchester United4 of 10
BTTSleague 52%
Chesterfield7 of 10
Colchester United6 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 541 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Chesterfield vs Colchester United corners, cards and goal times
League Two
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameChesterfield score late
Chesterfield
Colchester United
6.3
Corners won · league 4.9
4.2
2.6
Corners conceded · league 4.9
4.8
2.1
Cards · league 2.0
1.3
2.7
Opponents' cards · league 2.0
2.4
35%
Goals before half-time · league 44%
40%
35%
Goals after 75' · league 24%
30%
43%
Conceded before half-time · league 44%
38%
21%
Conceded after 75' · league 24%
54%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Colchester United0/5
Chesterfield2/5
Both Teams to Score
Colchester United3/5
Chesterfield2/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Colchester United3/5
Chesterfield4/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Colchester United4/5
Chesterfield3/5
First Half Result
Colchester United4/5
Chesterfield1/5
Correct Score
Colchester United2/5
Chesterfield0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction