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Fortaleza CEIF vs Independiente Medellín 0-3 Score & Prediction Review

Liga BetPlay - Season 2026 (Round 18)

Fair result
Fortaleza CEIFFortaleza CEIF

0–3

Independiente MedellínIndependiente Medellín
1.0Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Fortaleza CEIF would usually take 1.2 points and Independiente Medellín 1.6; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Independiente Medellín.

Fortaleza CEIF −1.2 pts vs chancesIndependiente Medellín +1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Fortaleza CEIF vs Independiente Medellín stats: how the match was played

Liga BetPlay

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Independiente Medellín had more than twice the shots on target

Fortaleza CEIF

Independiente Medellín

2

Shots on target

4

2

Big chances

3

7

Corners

3

0

Yellow cards

4

61%

Possession

39%

The match between Fortaleza CEIF and Independiente Medellín ended 0-3. Our AI model predicted a Fortaleza CEIF win at 37% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Atlético Bucaramanga – Fortaleza CEIF prediction & betting tips (Nov 12, 2026).

Fortaleza CEIF vs Independiente Medellín — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga BetPlay

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fortaleza CEIF to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Independiente Medellín to win.

Our model 37%Bookmakers 29%

Our track record

In 1,502 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.6% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: No, not both.

Our model 58%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 531 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.7% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 2,865 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 69%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 3,974 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 66.6%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 45%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 4,284 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.2% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Fortaleza CEIF Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fortaleza CEIF 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 3,447 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Independiente Medellín Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Independiente Medellín 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 62%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,655 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.2% of the time (bookmakers said 63.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Fortaleza CEIF vs Independiente Medellín 0-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Fortaleza CEIF vs Independiente Medellín. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga BetPlay - Colombia
Fortaleza CEIFFortaleza CEIF0
Independiente MedellínIndependiente Medellín3

Winner

12 73%

BTTS*

Yes 58%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 59%

Full Time

137%
X27%
236%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT23%77%46%54%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT59%41%83%17%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Fortaleza CEIF27%73%61%39%
Independiente Medellín28%72%62%39%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Fortaleza CEIF85%15%95%5%
Independiente Medellín84%16%95%5%

1st Half

130%
X45%
225%

1st Score

149%
X7%
244%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

20%

X-X

17%

2-2

17%

X-1

14%

X-2

14%

1-X

6%

2-X

6%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

12.5%

2-1

8.9%

1-2

8.8%

1-0

8.3%

0-1

8.2%

0-0

6.6%

2-2

6.3%

2-0

5.7%

0-2

4.9%

1-3

3.9%

3-1

3.7%

2-3

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Fortaleza CEIF vs Independiente Medellín — Recent Form

Independiente Medellín have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 5th in the table. Fortaleza CEIF have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 20th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Independiente MedellínIndependiente Medellín
W
W
L
L
L
Fortaleza CEIFFortaleza CEIF
L
L
L
D
L

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Independiente MedellínIndependiente Medellín
3/5
Fortaleza CEIFFortaleza CEIF
3/5

Both Teams to Score

Independiente MedellínIndependiente Medellín
2/5
Fortaleza CEIFFortaleza CEIF
2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Independiente MedellínIndependiente Medellín
4/5
Fortaleza CEIFFortaleza CEIF
3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Independiente MedellínIndependiente Medellín
4/5
Fortaleza CEIFFortaleza CEIF
5/5

First Half Result

Independiente MedellínIndependiente Medellín
1/5
Fortaleza CEIFFortaleza CEIF
2/5

Correct Score

Independiente MedellínIndependiente Medellín
1/5
Fortaleza CEIFFortaleza CEIF
2/5
W
D
L
Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Atlético Bucaramanga – Fortaleza CEIF prediction & betting tips (Nov 12, 2026).

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