Flop as favourites
1/8Deportes Tolima won only 1 of 8 as favourites (league 49%).
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Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Liga BetPlay - Season 2026 (Round 18)
Unlucky
Deportes Tolima are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−10points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Deportes Tolima 43% to winMillonarios 29%
Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios score prediction
Liga BetPlay
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.3 goals in total, a little under the Liga BetPlay average of 2.5.
goals expected
Deportes Tolima1.3
Millonarios1.1Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga BetPlay
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Deportes Tolima to win
Our model 39%Bookmakers 43%
Our track record
In 2,086 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 53%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 6,469 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 51%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 5,151 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.2% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 73%Bookmakers 77%
Our track record
In 4,580 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 46%Bookmakers 45%
Our track record
In 4,275 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.2% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).
Deportes Tolima Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Deportes Tolima 0–1 goals
Our model 61%Bookmakers 60%
Our track record
In 3,442 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).
Millonarios Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Millonarios 0–1 goals
Our model 67%Bookmakers 72%
Our track record
In 3,307 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Deportes Tolima–
Millonarios–Winner
12 71%
BTTS*
Yes 53%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Deportes Tolima–Millonarios–Winner
12 71%
BTTS*
Yes 53%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Full Time
139%
X29%
232%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 27% | 73% | 51% | 49% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 63% | 37% | 85% | 15% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27% | 73% | 61% | 39% |
| 32% | 68% | 67% | 33% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
130%
X46%
225%
1st Score
151%
X8%
242%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
22%
X-X
18%
2-2
17%
X-1
15%
X-2
11%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
13.3%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
8.8%
0-0
7.9%
1-2
7.8%
2-0
6.4%
2-2
5.6%
0-2
4.7%
3-1
3.6%
1-3
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios: the stats that stand out
Liga BetPlay
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Deportes Tolima: flop as favourites and shot-shy · Millonarios: hard to break
1/8Hard to break
2/10Millonarios conceded first in only 2 of their last 10 (league 46%).
Shot-shy
5/10Deportes Tolima failed to score in 5 of their last 10 (league 27%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios: attack vs defence
Liga BetPlay
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Liga BetPlay teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Deportes Tolima: good attack, good defence (1.47 xG, 1.06 xGA a game)
- Millonarios: good attack, good defence (1.53 xG, 1.01 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios form and luck check
Liga BetPlay
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Liga BetPlay gamesDeportes Tolima are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
- Deportes TolimaBookmakers: 43% to win today.Wasteful · −6 goals−9.8
- MillonariosBookmakers: 29% to win today.−2.6
Last 5 matches
MillonariosD
D
W
D
D
Deportes TolimaW
L
L
L
D
W
D
L
Strength rank: Deportes Tolima 5th of 20 · Millonarios 2nd of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Liga BetPlay
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Liga BetPlay gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Millonarios games more often than the Liga BetPlay average (53%), in Deportes Tolima games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 47%
Deportes Tolima4 of 10
Millonarios4 of 10
BTTSleague 53%
Deportes Tolima5 of 10
Millonarios8 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 421 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Deportes Tolima vs Millonarios corners, cards and goal times
Liga BetPlay
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 4.5
- Cards: league 2.9
- Goals before half-time: league 46%
- Goals after 75': league 23%
Corners and cards for every league: League stats →
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Millonarios1/5
Deportes Tolima2/5
Both Teams to Score
Millonarios4/5
Deportes Tolima5/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Millonarios4/5
Deportes Tolima2/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Millonarios3/5
Deportes Tolima3/5
First Half Result
Millonarios4/5
Deportes Tolima2/5
Correct Score
Millonarios2/5
Deportes Tolima0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction