Fast starters
8/10León scored first in 8 of their last 10 (league 46%).
León vs Toluca Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Liga MX - Season 2026/2027 (Round 14)
Riding their luck
León are taking more points than their chances usually bring
+5points more than their chances usually bring in their last 10
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: León 28% to winToluca 47%
León vs Toluca score prediction
Liga MX
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
3.1 goals in total, a little over the Liga MX average of 2.9.
goals expected
León1.4
Toluca1.7Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for León vs Toluca: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
León vs Toluca — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga MX
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Toluca to win
Our model 45%Bookmakers 47%
Our track record
In 3,592 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.2% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 60%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 2,449 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 57%Bookmakers 61%
Our track record
In 5,298 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.3% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 65%Bookmakers 60%
Our track record
In 2,373 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 43%Bookmakers 38%
Our track record
In 6,652 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
León Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
León 0–1 goals
Our model 64%Bookmakers 60%
Our track record
In 3,454 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).
Toluca Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Toluca 0–1 goals
Our model 53%Bookmakers 49%
Our track record
In 841 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
León vs Toluca — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for León vs Toluca. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
León–
Toluca–Winner
X2 69%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
León–Toluca–Winner
X2 69%
BTTS*
Yes 60%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
Full Time
131%
X25%
244%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 21% | 79% | 43% | 57% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 55% | 45% | 79% | 21% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32% | 68% | 64% | 36% |
| 23% | 77% | 53% | 47% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 14% | 95% | 5% |
| 78% | 22% | 91% | 9% |
1st Half
124%
X43%
233%
1st Score
142%
X6%
253%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
28%
X-2
16%
1-1
14%
X-X
14%
X-1
11%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
4%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
11.0%
1-2
9.4%
0-1
8.2%
2-1
7.2%
1-0
6.7%
0-2
6.7%
2-2
6.5%
0-0
5.6%
1-3
4.7%
2-0
4.4%
2-3
3.6%
0-3
3.5%
3-1
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
León vs Toluca: the stats that stand out
Liga MX
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%León: fast starters and always on the scoresheet
8/10Always on the scoresheet
0/10León scored in all of their last 10 (league 24% fail to score).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →León vs Toluca: attack vs defence
Liga MX
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Liga MX teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- León: good attack, weak defence (1.68 xG, 1.71 xGA a game)
- Toluca: good attack, good defence (2.09 xG, 1.43 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →León vs Toluca form and luck check
Liga MX
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Liga MX gamesLeón are taking more points than their chances usually bring
- LeónBookmakers: 28% to win today.+4.5
- TolucaBookmakers: 47% to win today. · 9 of 10 games−2.9
Last 5 matches
LeónW
L
D
W
D
TolucaD
D
L
D
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: León 11th of 18 · Toluca 1st of 18
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 18 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →León vs Toluca: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Liga MX
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Liga MX gamesBTTS = both teams scoredToluca games go over 2.5 goals more often than the Liga MX average (54%), León games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 54%
León4 of 10
Toluca7 of 10
BTTSleague 59%
León7 of 10
Toluca7 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 329 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →León vs Toluca corners, cards and goal times
Liga MX
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameToluca: last 9 with these statsLeón score late
León
Toluca
3.6
Corners won · league 5.0
6.8
6.6
Corners conceded · league 5.0
5.6
1.9
Cards · league 2.3
1.6
2.2
Opponents' cards · league 2.3
1.8
24%
Goals before half-time · league 45%
40%
41%
Goals after 75' · league 24%
15%
23%
Conceded before half-time · league 45%
38%
46%
Conceded after 75' · league 24%
38%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Toluca1/5
León2/5
Both Teams to Score
Toluca3/5
León5/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Toluca3/5
León2/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Toluca1/5
León4/5
First Half Result
Toluca1/5
León2/5
Correct Score
Toluca0/5
León3/5
correct predictionwrong prediction