León vs América 3-5 Score & Prediction Review
Liga MX - Season 2026/2027 (Round 12)
León3–5
AméricaOn these chances León would usually take 0.9 points and América 1.9; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: América.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →León vs América stats: how the match was played
Liga MX
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
América had clearly more shots on target
León
América
7
Shots on target
10
2
Big chances
2
7
Corners
2
4
Yellow cards
4
53%
Possession
47%
León vs América — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga MX
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
América to win
CorrectOur track record
In 3,626 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
León 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).
Our model’s pick
América 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: América 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 848 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
León vs América 3-5 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for León vs América. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
León3
América5Winner
X2 68%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
León3América5Winner
X2 68%
BTTS*
Yes 59%
Correct Score
1-1 11%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 57%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 21% | 79% | 43% | 57% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 55% | 45% | 79% | 21% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32% | 68% | 63% | 37% |
| 24% | 76% | 54% | 46% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
| 79% | 21% | 92% | 8% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
24%
1-1
19%
X-X
15%
X-2
14%
X-1
11%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
4%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
11.0%
1-2
9.0%
0-1
8.4%
2-1
7.7%
1-0
6.8%
0-2
6.4%
2-2
6.3%
0-0
5.5%
1-3
4.8%
2-0
4.7%
3-1
3.5%
2-3
3.5%
0-3
3.4%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
León vs América — Recent Form
América have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 1st in the table. León have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 7th in the table.
Last 5 matches
AméricaLeónOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
AméricaLeónBoth Teams to Score
AméricaLeónOver/Under 2.5 Goals
AméricaLeónOver/Under 3.5 Goals
AméricaLeónFirst Half Result
AméricaLeónCorrect Score
AméricaLeón