Leaky
0/10Necaxa kept no clean sheet in their last 10 (league 24%).
Guadalajara vs Necaxa Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Liga MX - Season 2026/2027 (Round 13)
Unlucky
Necaxa are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−8points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Necaxa 13% to winGuadalajara 69%
Guadalajara vs Necaxa score prediction
Liga MX
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Goal-fest alert3.1 goals expected
3.1 goals in total, a little over the Liga MX average of 2.9.
goals expected
Guadalajara2.2Necaxa0.9Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Guadalajara vs Necaxa: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Guadalajara vs Necaxa — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga MX
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Guadalajara to win
Our model 60%Bookmakers 69%
Our track record
In 1,062 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.4%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 54%Bookmakers 58%
Our track record
In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 58%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 65%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Guadalajara ahead at half-time
Our model 45%Bookmakers 51%
Our track record
In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Guadalajara Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Guadalajara 2+ goals
Our model 58%Bookmakers 70%
Our track record
In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Necaxa Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Necaxa 0–1 goals
Our model 77%Bookmakers 71%
Our track record
In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Guadalajara vs Necaxa — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Guadalajara vs Necaxa. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Guadalajara–
Necaxa–Winner
1 60%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-0 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
Guadalajara–Necaxa–Winner
1 60%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-0 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 55%
Full Time
160%
X22%
218%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 21% | 79% | 42% | 58% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 55% | 45% | 78% | 22% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% | 85% | 42% | 58% |
| 46% | 54% | 77% | 23% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68% | 32% | 86% | 15% |
| 93% | 7% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
145%
X37%
219%
1st Score
166%
X6%
228%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
41%
X-1
19%
X-X
11%
2-2
9%
X-2
5%
2-X
5%
1-X
4%
2-1
4%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-0
10.4%
2-1
10.3%
1-1
9.7%
2-0
9.2%
3-0
6.5%
3-1
6.2%
0-0
5.8%
2-2
5.0%
1-2
5.0%
0-1
4.8%
3-2
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Guadalajara vs Necaxa: the stats that stand out
Liga MX
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Necaxa: leaky · Guadalajara: always on the scoresheet
0/10Always on the scoresheet
1/10Guadalajara failed to score in only 1 of their last 10 (league 24%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Guadalajara vs Necaxa: attack vs defence
Liga MX
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Liga MX teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Guadalajara: good attack, good defence (1.72 xG, 1.21 xGA a game)
- Necaxa: weak attack, weak defence (1.65 xG, 2.00 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Guadalajara vs Necaxa form and luck check
Liga MX
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Liga MX gamesNecaxa are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
- GuadalajaraBookmakers: 69% to win today.−1.5
- NecaxaBookmakers: 13% to win today.Wasteful · −4 goals−7.5
Last 5 matches
GuadalajaraD
D
L
D
W
NecaxaL
D
L
L
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Guadalajara 2nd of 18 · Necaxa 15th of 18
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 18 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Guadalajara vs Necaxa: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Liga MX
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Liga MX gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Guadalajara and Necaxa games more often than the Liga MX average (60%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 54%
Guadalajara4 of 10
Necaxa6 of 10
BTTSleague 60%
Guadalajara6 of 10
Necaxa8 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 330 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Guadalajara vs Necaxa corners, cards and goal times
Liga MX
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameNecaxa score early
Guadalajara
Necaxa
6.9
Corners won · league 4.9
5.2
4.8
Corners conceded · league 4.9
5.3
1.5
Cards · league 2.3
2.6
1.6
Opponents' cards · league 2.3
2.2
50%
Goals before half-time · league 45%
64%
17%
Goals after 75' · league 24%
27%
30%
Conceded before half-time · league 45%
43%
20%
Conceded after 75' · league 24%
26%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Guadalajara1/5
Necaxa2/5
Both Teams to Score
Guadalajara3/5
Necaxa3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Guadalajara3/5
Necaxa3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Guadalajara4/5
Necaxa2/5
First Half Result
Guadalajara2/5
Necaxa3/5
Correct Score
Guadalajara1/5
Necaxa0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction