Leaky
1/10Alverca kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 10 (league 28%).
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Alverca vs Arouca Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Liga Portugal - Season 2026/2027 (Round 9)
Riding their luck
Arouca are taking more points than their chances usually bring
+8points more than their chances usually bring in their last 10
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Arouca 27% to winAlverca 45%
Alverca vs Arouca score prediction
Liga Portugal
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.7 goals in total, in line with the Liga Portugal average of 2.7.
goals expected
Alverca1.4
Arouca1.3Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Alverca vs Arouca: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Alverca vs Arouca — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga Portugal
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Alverca to win
Our model 44%Bookmakers 45%
Our track record
In 3,596 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 50%Bookmakers 55%
Our track record
In 6,458 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 55%Bookmakers 49%
Our track record
In 2,836 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 77%Bookmakers 72%
Our track record
In 3,650 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 47%Bookmakers 43%
Our track record
In 4,234 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).
Alverca Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Alverca 0–1 goals
Our model 60%Bookmakers 54%
Our track record
In 3,455 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).
Arouca Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Arouca 0–1 goals
Our model 72%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 3,353 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.7% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Alverca vs Arouca — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Alverca vs Arouca. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Alverca–
Arouca–Winner
1X 72%
BTTS*
Yes 50%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 67%
Alverca–Arouca–Winner
1X 72%
BTTS*
Yes 50%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 67%
Full Time
144%
X27%
228%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 30% | 70% | 55% | 45% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 67% | 33% | 88% | 12% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26% | 74% | 60% | 40% |
| 37% | 63% | 72% | 28% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84% | 16% | 95% | 5% |
| 91% | 9% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
133%
X47%
221%
1st Score
156%
X9%
235%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
25%
X-X
20%
X-1
16%
2-2
13%
X-2
11%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.8%
1-0
12.0%
2-1
9.3%
0-0
8.9%
0-1
8.6%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
6.8%
2-2
4.9%
0-2
4.6%
3-1
4.0%
3-0
3.8%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Alverca vs Arouca: the stats that stand out
Liga Portugal
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Alverca: leaky
1/10Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Alverca vs Arouca: attack vs defence
Liga Portugal
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Liga Portugal teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Alverca: weak attack, weak defence (1.31 xG, 1.39 xGA a game)
- Arouca: weak attack, weak defence (1.28 xG, 1.49 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Alverca vs Arouca form and luck check
Liga Portugal
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Liga Portugal gamesArouca are taking more points than their chances usually bring
- AlvercaBookmakers: 45% to win today.+0.3
- AroucaBookmakers: 27% to win today.Clinical · +5 goals+8.1
Last 5 matches
AlvercaW
W
W
L
D
AroucaW
D
L
D
W
W
D
L
Strength rank: Alverca 10th of 18 · Arouca 9th of 18
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 18 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Alverca vs Arouca: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Liga Portugal
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Liga Portugal gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Alverca and Arouca games more often than the Liga Portugal average (50%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 55%
Alverca5 of 10
Arouca6 of 10
BTTSleague 50%
Alverca7 of 10
Arouca5 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 306 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Alverca vs Arouca corners, cards and goal times
Liga Portugal
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameArouca score late
Alverca
Arouca
4.7
Corners won · league 4.7
3.2
3.9
Corners conceded · league 4.7
5.5
2.5
Cards · league 2.4
2.7
1.9
Opponents' cards · league 2.4
2.6
50%
Goals before half-time · league 44%
35%
21%
Goals after 75' · league 21%
35%
29%
Conceded before half-time · league 44%
56%
21%
Conceded after 75' · league 21%
11%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Arouca2/5
Alverca2/5
Both Teams to Score
Arouca2/5
Alverca2/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Arouca3/5
Alverca3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Arouca4/5
Alverca3/5
First Half Result
Arouca3/5
Alverca2/5
Correct Score
Arouca0/5
Alverca1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction