Hard to break
2/10Santa Clara conceded first in only 2 of their last 10 (league 47%).
- Home
- Marítimo vs Santa Clara
Marítimo vs Santa Clara Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Liga Portugal - Season 2026/2027 (Round 10)
Hard to break
Santa Clara conceded first in only 2 of their last 10 (league 47%).
2/10Conceded first · Santa Clara
Bookmakers: Santa Clara 43% to winMarítimo 28%
Marítimo vs Santa Clara score prediction
Liga Portugal
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.4 goals in total: fewer goals than usual (the Liga Portugal average is 2.7).
goals expected
Marítimo1.0Santa Clara1.4Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Marítimo vs Santa Clara: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Marítimo vs Santa Clara — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga Portugal
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Santa Clara to win
Our model 47%Bookmakers 43%
Our track record
In 3,539 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our model 54%Bookmakers 55%
Our track record
In 6,518 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 60%Bookmakers 62%
Our track record
In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 80%Bookmakers 81%
Our track record
In 3,637 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 51%Bookmakers 48%
Our track record
In 1,267 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.1% of the time (bookmakers said 51.6%).
Marítimo Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Marítimo 0–1 goals
Our model 77%Bookmakers 77%
Our track record
In 828 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.3% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
Santa Clara Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Santa Clara 0–1 goals
Our model 61%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 2,676 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.2% of the time (bookmakers said 63.7%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Marítimo vs Santa Clara — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Marítimo vs Santa Clara. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Marítimo–
Santa Clara–Winner
X2 75%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
0-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 70%
Marítimo–Santa Clara–Winner
X2 75%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
0-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 60%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 70%
Full Time
125%
X28%
247%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 33% | 67% | 60% | 40% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 70% | 30% | 90% | 10% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42% | 58% | 77% | 23% |
| 27% | 73% | 61% | 39% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94% | 6% | 99% | 1% |
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
120%
X50%
230%
1st Score
139%
X10%
250%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
24%
X-X
19%
X-2
18%
1-1
13%
X-1
11%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
1%
Correct Score
0-1
13.4%
1-1
13.1%
0-0
10.2%
1-0
9.3%
1-2
9.2%
0-2
9.1%
2-1
5.9%
2-0
4.4%
2-2
4.3%
0-3
4.0%
1-3
3.9%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Marítimo vs Santa Clara: the stats that stand out
Liga Portugal
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Santa Clara: hard to break and brick wall
2/10Brick wall
5/10Santa Clara kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 28%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Marítimo vs Santa Clara: attack vs defence
Liga Portugal
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Liga Portugal teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Marítimo: weak attack, weak defence (1.05 xG, 1.61 xGA a game)
- Santa Clara: good attack, good defence (1.40 xG, 0.93 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Marítimo vs Santa Clara form and luck check
Liga Portugal
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Liga Portugal gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- MarítimoBookmakers: 28% to win today. · 9 of 10 games+0.2
- Santa ClaraBookmakers: 43% to win today.+1.7
Last 5 matches
Santa ClaraL
W
D
W
W
MarítimoL
L
D
L
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Marítimo 16th of 18 · Santa Clara 6th of 18
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 18 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Marítimo vs Santa Clara: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Liga Portugal
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averageup to 10 recent Liga Portugal gamesBTTS = both teams scoredMarítimo games go over 2.5 goals more often than the Liga Portugal average (55%), Santa Clara games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 55%
Marítimo7 of 9
Santa Clara4 of 10
BTTSleague 50%
Marítimo6 of 9
Santa Clara4 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 308 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Marítimo vs Santa Clara corners, cards and goal times
Liga Portugal
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 4.7
- Cards: league 2.4
- Goals before half-time: league 43%
- Goals after 75': league 21%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Santa Clara3/5
Marítimo3/5
Both Teams to Score
Santa Clara4/5
Marítimo4/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Santa Clara3/5
Marítimo3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Santa Clara4/5
Marítimo3/5
First Half Result
Santa Clara2/5
Marítimo1/5
Correct Score
Santa Clara1/5
Marítimo1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction