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Arouca vs Estrela Amadora

Arouca vs Estrela Amadora 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Portugal - Season 2026/2027 (Round 8)

Fair result

Arouca

1–0

Estrela Amadora

0.9Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Arouca would usually take 1.3 points and Estrela Amadora 1.4; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Arouca.

Arouca +1.7 pts vs chancesEstrela Amadora −1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Arouca vs Estrela Amadora stats: how the match was played

Liga Portugal

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Arouca had clearly more shots on target

Arouca

Estrela Amadora

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

37%

Possession

63%

The match between Arouca and Estrela Amadora ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Arouca win with 39% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Estrela Amadora – Casa Pia prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Arouca vs Estrela Amadora — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Portugal

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Arouca to win

Correct

Our model 39%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 2,098 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 55%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 6,458 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 50%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 2,836 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 73%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 4,551 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 47%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 4,234 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Arouca Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Arouca 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 61%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 3,455 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Estrela Amadora Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Estrela Amadora 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 66%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,271 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Arouca vs Estrela Amadora 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Arouca vs Estrela Amadora. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga Portugal - Portugal

Arouca1

Estrela Amadora0

Winner

12 72%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

· FT

Liga Portugal - Portugal

Arouca1

Estrela Amadora0

Winner

12 72%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

Full Time

139%

X28%

233%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	26%	74%	50%	50%	63%	37%	86%	14%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	26%	74%	50%	50%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	63%	37%	86%	14%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	27%	73%	61%	39%	85%	15%	95%	5%
	32%	68%	66%	34%	87%	13%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	27%	73%	61%	39%
	32%	68%	66%	34%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	85%	15%	95%	5%
	87%	13%	96%	4%

1st Half

128%

X47%

225%

1st Score

151%

X8%

242%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

20%

X-X

18%

2-2

17%

X-1

15%

X-2

12%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

12.9%

1-0

9.5%

2-1

8.8%

0-1

8.5%

1-2

8.1%

0-0

7.8%

2-0

6.5%

2-2

5.9%

0-2

5.1%

3-1

3.7%

3-0

3.2%

1-3

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Arouca vs Estrela Amadora — Recent Form

Arouca have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 5th in the table. Estrela Amadora have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 10th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Arouca

Estrela Amadora

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Arouca

2/5

Estrela Amadora

1/5

Both Teams to Score

Arouca

2/5

Estrela Amadora

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Arouca

3/5

Estrela Amadora

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Arouca

4/5

Estrela Amadora

3/5

First Half Result

Arouca

3/5

Estrela Amadora

2/5

Correct Score

Arouca

0/5

Estrela Amadora

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Estrela Amadora – Casa Pia prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).