Always on the scoresheet
0/10Auxerre scored in all of their last 10 (league 28% fail to score).
Auxerre vs Le Mans Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Ligue 1 - Season 2026/2027 (Round 8)
Riding their luck
Auxerre are taking more points than their chances usually bring
+7points more than their chances usually bring in their last 10
85% of teams this far ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Auxerre 47% to winLe Mans 28%
Auxerre vs Le Mans score prediction
Ligue 1
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Evenly matched in front of goal
2.9 goals in total, a little over the Ligue 1 average of 2.8.
goals expected
Auxerre1.6
Le Mans1.3Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Auxerre vs Le Mans: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Auxerre vs Le Mans — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Ligue 1
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Auxerre to win
Our model 48%Bookmakers 47%
Our track record
In 3,481 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 56%Bookmakers 58%
Our track record
In 5,697 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.7% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 52%Bookmakers 55%
Our track record
In 5,155 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 69%Bookmakers 67%
Our track record
In 3,959 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.4% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 44%Bookmakers 41%
Our track record
In 6,656 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Auxerre Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Auxerre 0–1 goals
Our model 54%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 1,852 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.
Le Mans Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Le Mans 0–1 goals
Our model 71%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 3,355 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.7% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Auxerre vs Le Mans — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Auxerre vs Le Mans. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Auxerre–
Le Mans–Winner
1X 73%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Auxerre–Le Mans–Winner
1X 73%
BTTS*
Yes 56%
Correct Score
1-1 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 59%
Full Time
148%
X25%
227%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 24% | 76% | 48% | 52% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 59% | 41% | 82% | 18% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23% | 77% | 54% | 46% |
| 37% | 63% | 71% | 29% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 22% | 92% | 8% |
| 90% | 10% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
134%
X44%
222%
1st Score
155%
X7%
238%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
29%
X-1
16%
X-X
16%
2-2
14%
X-2
10%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
11.8%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
7.7%
0-1
7.3%
0-0
6.9%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
5.3%
3-1
5.1%
3-0
4.2%
0-2
4.0%
3-2
3.3%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Auxerre vs Le Mans: the stats that stand out
Ligue 1
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Auxerre: always on the scoresheet · Le Mans: leaky
0/10Leaky
0/7Le Mans kept no clean sheet in their last 7 (league 28%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Auxerre vs Le Mans: attack vs defence
Ligue 1
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Ligue 1 teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Auxerre: weak attack, weak defence (1.41 xG, 1.77 xGA a game)
- Le Mans: weak attack, weak defence (1.28 xG, 1.98 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Auxerre vs Le Mans form and luck check
Ligue 1
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Ligue 1 gamesAuxerre are taking more points than their chances usually bring
- AuxerreBookmakers: 47% to win today.Clinical · +5 goals+7.2
- Le MansBookmakers: 28% to win today. · 7 of 10 games+0.1
Last 5 matches
AuxerreW
L
W
W
L
Le MansL
L
W
D
D
W
D
L
Strength rank: Auxerre 14th of 18 · Le Mans 17th of 18
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 18 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Auxerre vs Le Mans: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Ligue 1
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averageup to 10 recent Ligue 1 gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Auxerre and Le Mans games more often than the Ligue 1 average (53%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 55%
Auxerre8 of 10
Le Mans6 of 7
BTTSleague 53%
Auxerre8 of 10
Le Mans6 of 7
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 296 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Auxerre vs Le Mans corners, cards and goal times
Ligue 1
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameLe Mans: last 7 with these statsLe Mans score early
Auxerre
Le Mans
5.5
Corners won · league 4.8
2.7
6.4
Corners conceded · league 4.8
5.9
1.6
Cards · league 1.9
2.6
1.9
Opponents' cards · league 1.9
1.9
39%
Goals before half-time · league 44%
60%
17%
Goals after 75' · league 23%
0%
37%
Conceded before half-time · league 44%
40%
26%
Conceded after 75' · league 23%
20%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Auxerre4/5
Le Mans2/5
Both Teams to Score
Auxerre3/5
Le Mans3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Auxerre3/5
Le Mans2/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Auxerre2/5
Le Mans3/5
First Half Result
Auxerre2/5
Le Mans3/5
Correct Score
Auxerre0/5
Le Mans1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction