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Auxerre vs Paris

Auxerre vs Paris 0-1 Score & Prediction Review

Ligue 1 - Season 2026/2027 (Round 10)

Fair result

Auxerre

0–1

Paris

0.7Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances Auxerre would usually take 1.2 points and Paris 1.5; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Paris.

Auxerre −1.2 pts vs chancesParis +1.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Auxerre vs Paris stats: how the match was played

Ligue 1

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Paris had clearly more shots on target

Auxerre

Paris

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

35%

Possession

65%

The match between Auxerre and Paris ended 0-1. Our AI model predicted a Auxerre win at 40% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Monaco – Auxerre prediction & betting tips (Nov 21, 2026).

Auxerre vs Paris — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ligue 1

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Auxerre to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Paris to win.

Our model 40%Bookmakers 19%

Our track record

In 1,515 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.6% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 56%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,787 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.7% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 51%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 5,209 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.3% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 71%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 4,610 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Paris ahead at half-time.

Our model 43%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 2,304 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Auxerre Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Auxerre 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 60%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 3,485 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).

Paris Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Paris 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Paris 2+ goals.

Our model 65%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 389 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.7% than to our 60–65%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Auxerre vs Paris 0-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Auxerre vs Paris. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Ligue 1 - France

Auxerre0

Paris1

Winner

1X 66%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

· FT

Ligue 1 - France

Auxerre0

Paris1

Winner

1X 66%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 61%

Full Time

140%

X27%

234%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	25%	75%	49%	51%	61%	39%	84%	16%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	25%	75%	49%	51%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	61%	39%	84%	16%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	27%	73%	60%	40%	84%	16%	94%	6%
	31%	69%	65%	35%	86%	14%	96%	4%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	27%	73%	60%	40%
	31%	69%	65%	35%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	84%	16%	94%	6%
	86%	14%	96%	4%

1st Half

132%

X43%

225%

1st Score

151%

X7%

242%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

23%

X-X

16%

2-2

16%

X-1

14%

X-2

12%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

12.4%

1-0

9.4%

2-1

8.8%

0-1

8.5%

1-2

7.8%

0-0

6.9%

2-0

6.3%

2-2

5.9%

0-2

5.4%

3-1

4.0%

1-3

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Auxerre vs Paris — Recent Form

Paris have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 2nd in the table. Auxerre have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 14th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Paris

Auxerre

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Auxerre

2/5

Paris

4/5

Both Teams to Score

Auxerre

3/5

Paris

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Auxerre

2/5

Paris

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Auxerre

2/5

Paris

3/5

First Half Result

Auxerre

2/5

Paris

2/5

Correct Score

Auxerre

1/5

Paris

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Monaco – Auxerre prediction & betting tips (Nov 21, 2026).