Flop as favourites
2/9Los Angeles FC won only 2 of 9 as favourites (league 50%).
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Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Major League Soccer - Season 2026
Unlucky
Los Angeles FC are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−5points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games. LA Galaxy are the other way round, ahead of their chances: about +5 points.
Bookmakers: Los Angeles FC 63% to winLA Galaxy 18%
Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy score prediction
Major League Soccer
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Los Angeles FC expected to score more than twice as many as LA Galaxy
3.3 goals in total, a little over the Major League Soccer average of 3.2.
goals expected
Los Angeles FC2.2
LA Galaxy1.1Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Major League Soccer
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Los Angeles FC to win
Our model 61%Bookmakers 63%
Our track record
In 1,073 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.1% of the time (bookmakers said 66.3%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 52%Bookmakers 62%
Our track record
In 6,524 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 56%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 5,361 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 67%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 3,992 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Los Angeles FC ahead at half-time
Our model 45%Bookmakers 47%
Our track record
In 4,294 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).
Los Angeles FC Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Los Angeles FC 2+ goals
Our model 57%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 3,499 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
LA Galaxy Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
LA Galaxy 0–1 goals
Our model 78%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 2,591 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.7% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Los Angeles FC–
LA Galaxy–Winner
1 61%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-0 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 57%
Los Angeles FC–LA Galaxy–Winner
1 61%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-0 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 56%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 57%
Full Time
161%
X22%
217%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 23% | 77% | 44% | 56% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 57% | 43% | 79% | 21% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16% | 84% | 43% | 57% |
| 48% | 52% | 78% | 22% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69% | 31% | 86% | 14% |
| 93% | 7% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
145%
X35%
219%
1st Score
164%
X6%
230%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
40%
X-1
19%
X-X
10%
2-2
9%
X-2
5%
2-1
5%
2-X
5%
1-X
4%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-0
11.6%
2-1
10.1%
2-0
9.9%
1-1
9.7%
3-0
6.6%
0-0
6.2%
3-1
6.1%
0-1
4.8%
2-2
4.7%
1-2
4.6%
3-2
3.1%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy: the stats that stand out
Major League Soccer
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Los Angeles FC: flop as favourites
2/9Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy: attack vs defence
Major League Soccer
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Major League Soccer teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Los Angeles FC: good attack, good defence (1.74 xG, 1.38 xGA a game)
- LA Galaxy: good attack, weak defence (1.56 xG, 2.01 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy form and luck check
Major League Soccer
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Major League Soccer gamesLA Galaxy riding their luck, Los Angeles FC unlucky
- Los Angeles FCBookmakers: 63% to win today.Wasteful · −7 goals−4.8
- LA GalaxyBookmakers: 18% to win today.+4.5
Last 5 matches
LA GalaxyD
W
L
W
W
Los Angeles FCD
W
D
L
D
W
D
L
Strength rank: Los Angeles FC 5th of 30 · LA Galaxy 25th of 30
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 30 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Major League Soccer
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Major League Soccer gamesBTTS = both teams scoredLos Angeles FC games go over 2.5 goals less often than the Major League Soccer average (64%), LA Galaxy games more often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 64%
Los Angeles FC4 of 10
LA Galaxy8 of 10
BTTSleague 63%
Los Angeles FC7 of 10
LA Galaxy8 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 488 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Los Angeles FC vs LA Galaxy corners, cards and goal times
Major League Soccer
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameGoal times close to the Major League Soccer average
Los Angeles FC
LA Galaxy
6.9
Corners won · league 5.0
5.1
5.6
Corners conceded · league 5.0
4.7
1.6
Cards · league 2.1
1.7
2.0
Opponents' cards · league 2.1
2.3
38%
Goals before half-time · league 46%
50%
15%
Goals after 75' · league 23%
17%
50%
Conceded before half-time · league 46%
64%
8%
Conceded after 75' · league 23%
18%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
LA Galaxy3/5
Los Angeles FC1/5
Both Teams to Score
LA Galaxy4/5
Los Angeles FC4/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
LA Galaxy4/5
Los Angeles FC2/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
LA Galaxy1/5
Los Angeles FC3/5
First Half Result
LA Galaxy4/5
Los Angeles FC0/5
Correct Score
LA Galaxy0/5
Los Angeles FC2/5
correct predictionwrong prediction