Always chasing
8/9Minnesota United conceded first in 8 of 9 recent matches with goal times (league 48%).
- Home
- Minnesota United vs Sporting KC
Minnesota United vs Sporting KC Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Major League Soccer - Season 2026
Unlucky
Minnesota United are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−7points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 9 with xG
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Minnesota United 66% to winSporting KC 16%
Minnesota United vs Sporting KC score prediction
Major League Soccer
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Goal-fest alert3.7 goals expected
3.7 goals in total: more goals than a typical Major League Soccer game (average 3.2).
goals expected
Minnesota United2.5
Sporting KC1.2Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Minnesota United vs Sporting KC: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Minnesota United vs Sporting KC — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Major League Soccer
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Minnesota United to win
Our model 57%Bookmakers 66%
Our track record
In 1,813 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Minnesota United vs Sporting KC — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Minnesota United vs Sporting KC. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Minnesota United–
Sporting KC–Winner
1 57%
BTTS*
Yes 57%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Minnesota United–Sporting KC–Winner
1 57%
BTTS*
Yes 57%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 53%
Full Time
157%
X22%
221%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 20% | 80% | 41% | 59% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 53% | 47% | 77% | 23% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16% | 84% | 43% | 57% |
| 43% | 57% | 74% | 26% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69% | 31% | 86% | 14% |
| 91% | 9% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
145%
X36%
219%
1st Score
160%
X5%
235%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
37%
X-1
17%
X-X
11%
2-2
9%
X-2
7%
2-1
5%
2-X
5%
1-X
4%
1-2
3%
Correct Score
1-1
9.9%
2-1
9.8%
1-0
9.5%
2-0
8.5%
3-1
6.1%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
5.7%
2-2
5.3%
0-1
5.1%
0-0
5.0%
3-2
3.4%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Minnesota United vs Sporting KC: the stats that stand out
Major League Soccer
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Minnesota United: always chasing
8/9Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Minnesota United vs Sporting KC: attack vs defence
Major League Soccer
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Major League Soccer teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Minnesota United: good attack, weak defence (1.80 xG, 1.73 xGA a game)
- Sporting KC: weak attack, weak defence (1.43 xG, 2.07 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Minnesota United vs Sporting KC form and luck check
Major League Soccer
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Major League Soccer gamesMinnesota United are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
- Minnesota UnitedBookmakers: 66% to win today. · 9 of 10 games−6.8
- Sporting KCBookmakers: 16% to win today. · 9 of 10 games−0.1
Last 5 matches
Minnesota UnitedD
W
D
D
L
Sporting KCL
L
L
D
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Minnesota United 16th of 30 · Sporting KC 30th of 30
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 30 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Minnesota United vs Sporting KC: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Major League Soccer
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Major League Soccer gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Minnesota United and Sporting KC games more often than the Major League Soccer average (63%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 64%
Minnesota United9 of 10
Sporting KC9 of 10
BTTSleague 63%
Minnesota United9 of 10
Sporting KC7 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 488 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Minnesota United vs Sporting KC corners, cards and goal times
Major League Soccer
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameMinnesota United: last 9 with these statsSporting KC: last 9 with these statsSporting KC score early
Minnesota United
Sporting KC
4.7
Corners won · league 5.0
4.8
5.6
Corners conceded · league 5.0
6.2
2.0
Cards · league 2.1
1.9
1.4
Opponents' cards · league 2.1
1.7
25%
Goals before half-time · league 46%
75%
20%
Goals after 75' · league 23%
6%
54%
Conceded before half-time · league 46%
46%
23%
Conceded after 75' · league 23%
17%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Sporting KC3/5
Minnesota United2/5
Both Teams to Score
Sporting KC5/5
Minnesota United4/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Sporting KC5/5
Minnesota United3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Sporting KC2/5
Minnesota United1/5
First Half Result
Sporting KC2/5
Minnesota United2/5
Correct Score
Sporting KC1/5
Minnesota United0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction