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Kilmarnock vs Motherwell

Kilmarnock vs Motherwell 3-2 Score & Prediction Review

Premiership - Season 2026/2027 (Round 9)

Fair result

Kilmarnock

3–2

Motherwell

1.9Chances (xG)2.1

On these chances Kilmarnock would usually take 1.3 points and Motherwell 1.5; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Motherwell.

Kilmarnock +1.7 pts vs chancesMotherwell −1.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Kilmarnock vs Motherwell stats: how the match was played

Premiership

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Kilmarnock

Motherwell

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

52%

Possession

48%

The match between Kilmarnock and Motherwell ended 3-2. Our AI model correctly predicted a Kilmarnock win with 37% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Falkirk – Kilmarnock prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Kilmarnock vs Motherwell — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premiership

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Kilmarnock to win

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Motherwell to win.

Our model 37%Bookmakers 33%

Our track record

In 1,526 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 57%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 5,688 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 5,144 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 70%Bookmakers 64%

Our track record

In 3,950 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.5% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 40%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 6,650 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Kilmarnock Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Kilmarnock 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 61%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,452 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Motherwell Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Motherwell 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Motherwell 2+ goals.

Our model 62%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 356 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.7% than to our 60–65%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Kilmarnock vs Motherwell 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Kilmarnock vs Motherwell. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Premiership - Scotland

Kilmarnock3

Motherwell2

Winner

12 74%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

· FT

Premiership - Scotland

Kilmarnock3

Motherwell2

Winner

12 74%

BTTS*

Yes 57%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

Full Time

137%

X26%

236%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	24%	76%	48%	52%	60%	40%	83%	17%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	24%	76%	48%	52%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	60%	40%	83%	17%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	28%	72%	61%	39%	85%	16%	95%	5%
	29%	71%	62%	38%	85%	15%	95%	5%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	28%	72%	61%	39%
	29%	71%	62%	38%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	85%	16%	95%	5%
	85%	15%	95%	5%

1st Half

130%

X40%

229%

1st Score

146%

X6%

247%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

21%

2-2

19%

X-X

15%

X-2

14%

X-1

12%

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

12.4%

1-0

8.9%

0-1

8.4%

1-2

8.4%

2-1

8.3%

0-0

6.4%

2-2

6.1%

2-0

5.9%

0-2

5.8%

3-1

3.9%

1-3

3.7%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Kilmarnock vs Motherwell — Recent Form

Kilmarnock have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 11th in the table. Motherwell have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 5 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 10th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Kilmarnock

Motherwell

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Kilmarnock

2/5

Motherwell

4/5

Both Teams to Score

Kilmarnock

3/5

Motherwell

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Kilmarnock

2/5

Motherwell

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Kilmarnock

3/5

Motherwell

3/5

First Half Result

Kilmarnock

3/5

Motherwell

2/5

Correct Score

Kilmarnock

1/5

Motherwell

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Falkirk – Kilmarnock prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).