Brick wall
6/10Deportivo Maldonado kept 6 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 30%).
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Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 11)
Brick wall
Deportivo Maldonado kept 6 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 30%).
6/10Clean sheets · Deportivo Maldonado
Bookmakers: Deportivo Maldonado 21% to winNacional 53%
Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado score prediction
Primera Division
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Nacional expected to create clearly more
2.5 goals in total, a little over the Primera Division average of 2.4.
goals expected
Nacional1.5Deportivo Maldonado1.0Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Primera Division
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Nacional to win
Our model 47%Bookmakers 53%
Our track record
In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).
Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our model 53%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 58%Bookmakers 51%
Our track record
In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 80%Bookmakers 74%
Our track record
In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 49%Bookmakers 43%
Our track record
In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).
Nacional Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Nacional 0–1 goals
Our model 61%Bookmakers 52%
Our track record
In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).
Deportivo Maldonado Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Deportivo Maldonado 0–1 goals
Our model 76%Bookmakers 75%
Our track record
In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Nacional–
Deportivo Maldonado–Winner
1X 74%
BTTS*
No 53%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 70%
Nacional–Deportivo Maldonado–Winner
1X 74%
BTTS*
No 53%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 70%
Full Time
147%
X28%
226%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 32% | 68% | 58% | 42% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 70% | 30% | 90% | 10% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26% | 74% | 61% | 39% |
| 41% | 59% | 76% | 24% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
| 93% | 7% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
132%
X49%
219%
1st Score
154%
X10%
236%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
27%
X-X
19%
X-1
18%
2-2
12%
X-2
10%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
2%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
13.6%
1-1
13.2%
0-0
9.9%
2-1
9.5%
0-1
8.9%
2-0
8.8%
1-2
6.2%
0-2
4.2%
2-2
4.2%
3-1
4.0%
3-0
3.9%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado: the stats that stand out
Primera Division
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Deportivo Maldonado: brick wall · Nacional: fast starters and always on the scoresheet
6/10Fast starters
7/10Nacional scored first in 7 of their last 10 (league 46%).
Always on the scoresheet
1/10Nacional failed to score in only 1 of their last 10 (league 30%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado: attack vs defence
Primera Division
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Primera Division teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Nacional: weak attack, good defence (0.97 xG, 1.17 xGA a game)
- Deportivo Maldonado: weak attack, good defence (1.12 xG, 1.13 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado form and luck check
Primera Division
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Primera Division gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- NacionalBookmakers: 53% to win today. · 6 of 10 games+1.8
- Deportivo MaldonadoBookmakers: 21% to win today. · 6 of 10 games−0.3
Last 5 matches
NacionalW
W
W
W
D
Deportivo MaldonadoD
W
W
W
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Nacional 2nd of 16 · Deportivo Maldonado 6th of 16
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 16 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Primera Division
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Primera Division gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Nacional and Deportivo Maldonado games less often than the Primera Division average (49%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 43%
Nacional3 of 10
Deportivo Maldonado2 of 10
BTTSleague 49%
Nacional4 of 10
Deportivo Maldonado2 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 295 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado corners, cards and goal times
Primera Division
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameDeportivo Maldonado score late
Nacional
Deportivo Maldonado
7.0
Corners won · league 4.5
3.4
3.8
Corners conceded · league 4.5
4.4
2.3
Cards · league 3.0
2.5
3.4
Opponents' cards · league 3.0
2.6
36%
Goals before half-time · league 46%
36%
29%
Goals after 75' · league 26%
36%
22%
Conceded before half-time · league 46%
67%
33%
Conceded after 75' · league 26%
17%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Nacional4/5
Deportivo Maldonado2/5
Both Teams to Score
Nacional2/5
Deportivo Maldonado3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Nacional4/5
Deportivo Maldonado4/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Nacional4/5
Deportivo Maldonado5/5
First Half Result
Nacional1/5
Deportivo Maldonado3/5
Correct Score
Nacional2/5
Deportivo Maldonado1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction