Chapecoense vs Athletico PR 1-4 Score & Prediction Review
Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 30)
Athletico PR won with fewer chances than Chapecoense
Chapecoense1–4
Athletico PROn these chances Chapecoense would usually take 2.0 points and Athletico PR 0.8; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Athletico PR.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Chapecoense vs Athletico PR stats: how the match was played
Serie A
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
Chapecoense
Athletico PR
7
Shots on target
8
6
Big chances
4
6
Corners
7
2
Yellow cards
1
46%
Possession
54%
Chapecoense vs Athletico PR — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie A
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Athletico PR to win
CorrectOur track record
In 2,096 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 6,452 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.2% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 2,837 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 4,551 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Athletico PR ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 540 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.9% than to our 45–50%.
Our model’s pick
Chapecoense 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,452 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.9% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).
Our model’s pick
Athletico PR 0–1 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Athletico PR 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 356 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.7% than to our 60–65%.
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Chapecoense vs Athletico PR 1-4 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Chapecoense vs Athletico PR. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Chapecoense1
Athletico PR4Winner
12 73%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 64%
Chapecoense1Athletico PR4Winner
12 73%
BTTS*
Yes 55%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 51%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 64%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 27% | 73% | 51% | 49% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 64% | 36% | 86% | 14% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30% | 70% | 65% | 35% |
| 29% | 71% | 63% | 37% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
| 86% | 14% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
20%
X-X
18%
2-2
17%
X-1
14%
X-2
13%
1-X
6%
2-X
6%
1-2
3%
2-1
3%
Correct Score
1-1
13.1%
0-1
9.5%
1-0
9.4%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
8.6%
0-0
7.6%
0-2
5.9%
2-0
5.7%
2-2
5.5%
1-3
3.5%
3-1
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Chapecoense vs Athletico PR — Recent Form
Athletico PR have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 3rd in the table. Chapecoense have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 20th in the table.
Last 5 matches
Athletico PRChapecoenseOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
ChapecoenseAthletico PRBoth Teams to Score
ChapecoenseAthletico PROver/Under 2.5 Goals
ChapecoenseAthletico PROver/Under 3.5 Goals
ChapecoenseAthletico PRFirst Half Result
ChapecoenseAthletico PRCorrect Score
ChapecoenseAthletico PR