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Bragantino vs Cruzeiro

Bragantino vs Cruzeiro 4-2 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 30)

Fair result

Bragantino

4–2

Cruzeiro

2.4Chances (xG)3.1

On these chances Bragantino would usually take 1.1 points and Cruzeiro 1.8; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Bragantino.

Bragantino +2.0 pts vs chancesCruzeiro −1.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Bragantino vs Cruzeiro stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Bragantino

Cruzeiro

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

31%

Possession

69%

The match between Bragantino and Cruzeiro ended 4-2. Our AI model correctly predicted a Bragantino win with 46% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Palmeiras – Bragantino prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Bragantino vs Cruzeiro — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bragantino to win

Correct

Our model 46%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 3,506 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 55%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 6,507 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 50%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 72%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 45%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 6,710 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Bragantino Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bragantino 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Bragantino 2+ goals.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 1,026 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.0% than to our 55–60%.

Cruzeiro Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cruzeiro 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 70%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,383 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Bragantino vs Cruzeiro 4-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Bragantino vs Cruzeiro. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Bragantino4

Cruzeiro2

Winner

1X 72%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Bragantino4

Cruzeiro2

Winner

1X 72%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

Full Time

146%

X25%

228%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	25%	75%	50%	50%	62%	38%	85%	15%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	25%	75%	50%	50%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	62%	38%	85%	15%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	23%	77%	56%	44%	81%	19%	94%	6%
	35%	65%	70%	30%	90%	10%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	23%	77%	56%	44%
	35%	65%	70%	30%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	81%	19%	94%	6%
	90%	10%	97%	3%

1st Half

137%

X45%

218%

1st Score

161%

X7%

233%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

30%

X-1

18%

X-X

16%

2-2

11%

X-2

10%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

12.5%

1-0

10.7%

2-1

9.9%

0-1

7.9%

2-0

7.7%

1-2

7.0%

0-0

6.7%

2-2

5.1%

3-1

4.8%

0-2

4.2%

3-0

3.9%

3-2

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Bragantino vs Cruzeiro — Recent Form

Cruzeiro have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 3rd in the table. Bragantino have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 10th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Cruzeiro

Bragantino

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Cruzeiro

3/5

Bragantino

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Cruzeiro

5/5

Bragantino

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Cruzeiro

3/5

Bragantino

4/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Cruzeiro

2/5

Bragantino

4/5

First Half Result

Cruzeiro

1/5

Bragantino

2/5

Correct Score

Cruzeiro

1/5

Bragantino

2/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Palmeiras – Bragantino prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).