Fast starters
8/10Empoli scored first in 8 of their last 10 (league 47%).
Cesena vs Empoli Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Serie B - Season 2026/2027 (Round 9)
Fast starters
Empoli scored first in 8 of their last 10 (league 47%).
8/10Scored first · Empoli
Bookmakers: Empoli 27% to winCesena 47%
Cesena vs Empoli score prediction
Serie B
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Cesena expected to create clearly more
2.6 goals in total, in line with the Serie B average of 2.6.
goals expected
Cesena1.6Empoli1.1Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Cesena vs Empoli: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Cesena vs Empoli — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie B
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Cesena to win
Our model 47%Bookmakers 47%
Our track record
In 3,506 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).
Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our model 57%Bookmakers 44%
Our track record
In 549 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.7% than to our 55–60%.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 62%Bookmakers 48%
Our track record
In 104 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.2% than to our 60–65%.
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 81%Bookmakers 71%
Our track record
In 1,719 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.5% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 43%Bookmakers 43%
Our track record
In 6,710 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Cesena Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Cesena 0–1 goals
Our model 62%Bookmakers 53%
Our track record
In 3,476 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).
Empoli Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Empoli 0–1 goals
Our model 79%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 2,590 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.8% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Cesena vs Empoli — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Cesena vs Empoli. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Cesena–
Empoli–Winner
1X 77%
BTTS*
No 56%
Correct Score
1-0 15%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 62%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 71%
Cesena–Empoli–Winner
1X 77%
BTTS*
No 56%
Correct Score
1-0 15%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 62%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 71%
Full Time
147%
X30%
223%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 37% | 63% | 62% | 38% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 70% | 30% | 90% | 10% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28% | 72% | 62% | 38% |
| 46% | 54% | 79% | 21% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
| 94% | 6% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
137%
X43%
220%
1st Score
153%
X13%
234%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
29%
X-1
18%
X-X
18%
2-2
11%
X-2
8%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-0
14.9%
0-0
13.2%
1-1
12.5%
0-1
9.0%
2-0
8.8%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
5.2%
3-0
4.0%
2-2
3.9%
3-1
3.6%
0-2
3.4%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Cesena vs Empoli: the stats that stand out
Serie B
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Empoli: fast starters
8/10Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Cesena vs Empoli: attack vs defence
Serie B
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Serie B teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- Cesena: good attack, weak defence (1.40 xG, 1.53 xGA a game)
- Empoli: weak attack, weak defence (1.26 xG, 1.68 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Cesena vs Empoli form and luck check
Serie B
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Serie B gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- CesenaBookmakers: 47% to win today.−2.2
- EmpoliBookmakers: 27% to win today.+0.5
Last 5 matches
CesenaL
D
L
D
D
EmpoliL
D
L
L
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Cesena 13th of 20 · Empoli 19th of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →Cesena vs Empoli: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Serie B
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Serie B gamesBTTS = both teams scoredCesena and Empoli games both go over 2.5 goals less often than the Serie B average (49%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 49%
Cesena3 of 10
Empoli4 of 10
BTTSleague 53%
Cesena7 of 10
Empoli5 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 381 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Cesena vs Empoli corners, cards and goal times
Serie B
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameCesena score early
Cesena
Empoli
5.0
Corners won · league 4.9
4.0
6.0
Corners conceded · league 4.9
4.0
1.5
Cards · league 2.3
2.4
2.0
Opponents' cards · league 2.3
1.6
73%
Goals before half-time · league 43%
40%
9%
Goals after 75' · league 25%
20%
46%
Conceded before half-time · league 43%
20%
31%
Conceded after 75' · league 25%
20%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Empoli2/5
Cesena2/5
Both Teams to Score
Empoli3/5
Cesena1/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Empoli3/5
Cesena3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Empoli4/5
Cesena4/5
First Half Result
Empoli3/5
Cesena0/5
Correct Score
Empoli0/5
Cesena1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction