Carrarese vs Modena 2-1 Score & Prediction Review
Serie B - Season 2026/2027 (Round 7)
Carrarese2–1
ModenaOn these chances Carrarese would usually take 1.4 points and Modena 1.4; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Modena.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Carrarese vs Modena stats: how the match was played
Serie B
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
Carrarese
Modena
4
Shots on target
4
4
Big chances
1
2
Corners
8
4
Yellow cards
2
1
Red cards
0
42%
Possession
58%
Carrarese vs Modena — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie B
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Modena to win
WrongOur track record
In 3,479 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,118 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 801 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 55–60%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,651 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 4,236 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).
Our model’s pick
Carrarese 0–1 goals
WrongOur track record
In 833 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 73.8% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).
Our model’s pick
Modena 0–1 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Modena 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 635 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Carrarese vs Modena 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Carrarese vs Modena. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Carrarese2
Modena1Winner
X2 75%
BTTS*
No 50%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 67%
Carrarese2Modena1Winner
X2 75%
BTTS*
No 50%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 67%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 30% | 70% | 55% | 45% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 67% | 33% | 88% | 12% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40% | 60% | 75% | 25% |
| 24% | 76% | 58% | 42% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93% | 7% | 98% | 2% |
| 82% | 18% | 94% | 6% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
23%
X-X
19%
X-2
18%
1-1
13%
X-1
10%
2-X
7%
1-X
6%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.9%
0-1
12.7%
1-2
9.5%
0-0
8.9%
0-2
8.8%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
6.3%
2-2
4.9%
0-3
4.3%
1-3
4.2%
2-0
3.9%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Carrarese vs Modena — Recent Form
Modena have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 4th in the table. Carrarese have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 14th in the table.
Last 5 matches
ModenaCarrareseOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
ModenaCarrareseBoth Teams to Score
ModenaCarrareseOver/Under 2.5 Goals
ModenaCarrareseOver/Under 3.5 Goals
ModenaCarrareseFirst Half Result
ModenaCarrareseCorrect Score
ModenaCarrarese