Shot-shy
5/10San Lorenzo failed to score in 5 of their last 10 (league 34%).
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San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 14)
Bore draw alert
Fewer goals than usual expected in San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys
1.9goals expected · Liga Profesional de Fútbol average 2.1
Since July 2025, games with an alert like this averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers: under 2.5 goals 68%
San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys score prediction
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Bore draw alertJust 1.9 goals expected
1.9 goals in total, a little under the Liga Profesional de Fútbol average of 2.1.
goals expected
San Lorenzo1.1
Newell's Old Boys0.8Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
Goal-fest alert: we expect at least 2.7 goals, clearly more than usual in this league (8.5% above the average). Since July 2025, these games averaged 3.2 goals, and 62% went over 2.5.
Bore draw alert: we expect 2.3 goals or fewer, clearly less than usual (11% below the average). These games averaged 2.2 goals, and 63% stayed under 2.5.
Bookmakers usually see these coming too, so use the alert to know what kind of game to expect, not as a betting edge.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
San Lorenzo to win
Our model 42%Bookmakers 37%
Our track record
In 3,598 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our model 53%Bookmakers 58%
Our track record
In 6,459 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 58%Bookmakers 68%
Our track record
In 5,307 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 78%Bookmakers 86%
Our track record
In 3,651 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%
Our track record
In 1,244 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.0% of the time (bookmakers said 51.7%).
San Lorenzo Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
San Lorenzo 0–1 goals
Our model 65%Bookmakers 72%
Our track record
In 3,455 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 64.0% of the time (bookmakers said 64.0%).
Newell's Old Boys Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Newell's Old Boys 0–1 goals
Our model 72%Bookmakers 77%
Our track record
In 3,353 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.7% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
San Lorenzo–
Newell's Old Boys–Winner
1X 69%
BTTS*
No 53%
Correct Score
1-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 68%
San Lorenzo–Newell's Old Boys–Winner
1X 69%
BTTS*
No 53%
Correct Score
1-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 58%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 68%
Full Time
142%
X27%
231%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 32% | 68% | 58% | 42% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 68% | 32% | 89% | 11% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29% | 71% | 65% | 35% |
| 38% | 62% | 72% | 28% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87% | 13% | 96% | 4% |
| 90% | 10% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
132%
X52%
217%
1st Score
156%
X10%
234%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
25%
X-1
20%
X-X
20%
X-2
11%
2-2
11%
1-X
5%
2-X
4%
2-1
2%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
13.3%
1-1
12.7%
0-0
9.6%
0-1
9.5%
2-1
8.5%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
5.0%
2-2
4.3%
3-1
3.2%
3-0
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys: the stats that stand out
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%San Lorenzo: shot-shy and always chasing
5/10Always chasing
6/10San Lorenzo conceded first in 6 of their last 10 (league 44%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys: attack vs defence
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Liga Profesional de Fútbol teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- San Lorenzo: weak attack, good defence (1.15 xG, 1.40 xGA a game)
- Newell's Old Boys: weak attack, good defence (1.21 xG, 1.18 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys form and luck check
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Liga Profesional de Fútbol gamesBoth results in line with their chances
- San LorenzoBookmakers: 37% to win today.+2.5
- Newell's Old BoysBookmakers: 30% to win today.+2.5
Last 5 matches
Newell's Old BoysW
L
D
W
D
San LorenzoW
W
L
L
D
W
D
L
Strength rank: San Lorenzo 19th of 30 · Newell's Old Boys 24th of 30
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 30 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Liga Profesional de Fútbol gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in San Lorenzo games less often than the Liga Profesional de Fútbol average (46%), in Newell's Old Boys games more often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 37%
San Lorenzo2 of 10
Newell's Old Boys3 of 10
BTTSleague 46%
San Lorenzo2 of 10
Newell's Old Boys5 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 513 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys corners, cards and goal times
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per gameNewell's Old Boys score late
San Lorenzo
Newell's Old Boys
3.8
Corners won · league 4.4
4.3
4.6
Corners conceded · league 4.4
4.2
2.8
Cards · league 2.5
1.8
3.1
Opponents' cards · league 2.5
2.8
17%
Goals before half-time · league 41%
20%
17%
Goals after 75' · league 25%
50%
60%
Conceded before half-time · league 41%
43%
0%
Conceded after 75' · league 25%
29%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Newell's Old Boys2/5
San Lorenzo3/5
Both Teams to Score
Newell's Old Boys3/5
San Lorenzo3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Newell's Old Boys4/5
San Lorenzo3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Newell's Old Boys5/5
San Lorenzo5/5
First Half Result
Newell's Old Boys2/5
San Lorenzo3/5
Correct Score
Newell's Old Boys1/5
San Lorenzo1/5
correct predictionwrong prediction